The economy will likely expand this fall at a weak pace, but the risks are rising of another recession, a private research group says.
The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase.
Still, the improvement in August wasn’t broad-based and mostly stemmed from an improvement in financial conditions, such as low interest rates.
“There is growing risk that sustained weak confidence could put downward pressure on demand and business activity, causing the economy to potentially dip into recession,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board. “While the chance of that happening remains below 50-50, the odds have certainly increased in recent months.”
Only four of the 10 measures that the Conference Board uses to compile its index showed improvement in August. Two were related to financial conditions. Building permits also rose.
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