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Showing posts with label Equity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Equity. Show all posts

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Watch the Ratios to make the Sense and beat Pros




When asked about the Balance sheet analysis, Benjamin Graham asks all Investors to be extra Vigil about the Annual Report of the company. The International Norms and other Statutory requirements enforce the Listed Companies, to state most of the above ratios.



Each ratio is notifier and as the term ratio denotes, each of this ratios is a comparison Indicators. The Ratio Analysis basically simplifies the abstract Analysis, and is better Indicative of the underlying.


I will endeavour to briefly explain in 6 Parts in the coming week. 

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Indian Vehicle Sales Tumble


In a shocker that reveals how much the recent interest rate hike has bitten into car sales in India—the second fastest growing market for automobiles in the world—data for July this year shows a decline in sales for the first time in over 30 months.
Domestic passenger car sales have registered a 15.76% decline in July this year mainly due to hikes in lending rates and lower production by market leader Maruti Suzuki during the month.
Car sales in the country stood at 1,33,747 units in July, 2011, as against 1,58,767 units in the same month last year, according to figures released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) today.
"This is the first time since January, 2009, that car sales have fallen. Interest rates and fuel prices were going up in recent months and that led to an overall negative sentiment in the market," SIAM Director General Vishnu Mathur told reporters.
The car market last witnessed a fall in January, 2009, when sales shrunk by 3.16% year-on-year. Last month's decline is the steepest since November, 2008, when car segment sales fell by 19.34%, he added.
The production loss at Maruti's Manesar facility due to preparations for the launch of its new Swift model and realignment of its DZiRE model's output also severely impacted sales, he said.
Earlier this month, Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) said that due to these two planned activities, sales in July were negatively impacted by nearly 17,000 units.
"There is no lack of demand, but just lack of conversion of demand into purchases by customers," Mathur said.
SIAM Senior Director Sugato Sen said non-availability of certain components like castings also impacted the output of many car-makers.
During the month, MSI India posted a 31.04% dip in domestic car sales to 52,483 units.
Rival Hyundai Motor India's sales were down by 11.49% to 25,501 units. Tata Motors saw a decline of 43.13% in sales to 13,997 units during the month.
When asked about the outlook, Mathur said: "Interest rates and fuel prices are challenges for the market. Hopefully, interest rates have reached their peak... If crude continues to soften, then there may be some positive impact as it will lead to inflation coming down."
The forthcoming festive season is also likely to help car-makers push sales, but to what extent it can boost growth has to be looked at, he added.
The auto industry has started slowing down this fiscal, with the passenger car segment growing by only 7% in May. In June, it saw its slowest growth rate in 27 months of 1.62%.
SIAM had last month revised the growth projection downward to 10-12% for 2011-12, as against its earlier forecast of 16-18%.
According to SIAM, two-wheeler sales increased by 12.61% in July, 2011, to 10,56,906 units from 9,38,514 units in July, 2010.
Motorcycle sales grew by 10.51 per cent during the month to 7,85,278 units from 7,10,621 units in the corresponding month last year.
Hero MotoCorp (formerly Hero Honda) continued its impressive performance with a 13.89% increase in sales to 4,43,948 units. Rival Bajaj Auto also posted a 5.30% increase in sales to 2,02,326 units during the month.
However, Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI) saw its bike sales falling by 6.52% to 51,920 units. Chennai-based TVS Motor Co saw its motorcycle sales going up by 9.58% to 48,091 units during the month.
The scooter segment witnessed a growth of 23.03% in sales during July this year to 2,05,695 units from 1,67,195 units in the same month last year.
HMSI's scooter sales during the month were up 19.54% to 89,869 units, while that of TVS Motor Co grew by 20.47% to 46,324 units. Hero MotoCorp's scooter sales during the month grew by 36.29% to 33,766 units.
Three-wheeler sales during July, 2011, declined by 3.13% to 43,949 units from 45,369 in the same month last year.
Sales of commercial vehicles jumped by 23.70% to 64,241 units from 51,934 units in the year-ago period.
Light commercial vehicle sales grew by 35.95% to 37,111 units from 27,297 units last year. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales stood at 27,130 units as against 24,637 units in July last year, up 10.12%, SIAM said.
Total sales of vehicles across categories registered a growth of 8.99% to 13,48,753 units in July, compared to 12,37,521 units in the same month last year, it added.

Sunday, August 7, 2011

Israel and Dubai slump Disney,Retail sales results, China data

The Next Week is entered with Huge Change of Back Drop. The US Sovereign Ratings are cut to AA/+. The Israel Stock Markets opened with a Circuit Halter and ended with about 6 % downside.

This Week the Earlier part, Monday & Tuesday, are field days for US Debt.
Monday : Standard and Poor's releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors. 
This shall include Fannie Mae and Fredie Mac, host of Insurers, Banks , And Pension funds.
This is a Serious Stuff and Investors shall be better off, if they wait for Full Impact.


Tuesdays : FOMC meets and its press statement is ' Generally' expected to Counter the S&P Move.
What FED can Do ? 1) Guidance for Low rates 2) Lower Interest rates 3) Buy Back Programme- QE-3
The Option 2, may undo the market reaction to S&P downgrade.

According to Alan Greenspan, 'the Equity Market shall act negatively. And, the Bottoming out process shall take time.' The Massive impact may usurp latter on, when the Interest Cost will rise and hit the Housing Market.

Value Destruction Phase ?; 
It seems that,  Intra-markets will have contagion effect shall play out. i.e. Rise in Bonds to Affect equities and fall in Equities and both shall trigger a fall in commodities. The Currency Markets, though will Trigger the Market reactions. All though Gold is perceived to be the Beneficiary, the markets may not play accordingly. It might also be affected in short term.

The Latter Week shall follow the Data and US Results, particularly US Consumer giants and Disney.
In Indian Diaspora : Nifty 50 Changes by 2 companies from 8th, Tuesday
L&T, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Coffee, Tata Chemical, Aurbindo Pharma, PTC, on Monday, 
J Kumar Infra, ABB , Wockhardt, Tata Comminications, On Tuesday. 
On 10th Wednesday,VIP Industries, TATA Power, REC, IOC, Jubillant are Reporting.
11th has Reliance Infra, JP Power, Tata Motors, Zuari, SPIC, Rolta, Reliance Power, etc.
12the  Friday : Punj Lloyd, Tech Mahindra, TATA Steel, Gammon, JP Infra, Videocon, BPCL, Reliance Mediaworks, Coal India, etc shall be declaring Result.

The List of Economic data is :

DateTimeCurrencyEventImportanceActualForecastPreviousNotes
Sun
Aug 7
Currency: nzdNZD REINZ Housing Price Index (JUL)Low3229
Currency: nzdNZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM%) (JUL)Low1.3%
Currency: nzdNZD REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUL)Medium14.2%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUL)Low2.9%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUL)Low2.2%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUL)Low-0.6%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUL)Low-0.6%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN)Low¥652.8B¥590.7B
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN)Low¥961.1B¥391.0B
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Current Account Balance (YoY%) (JUN)Low-40.1%-51.7%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (JUN)Medium¥113.1B-¥772.7B
Mon
Aug 8
00:00Currency: nzdNZD QV House Prices (YoY) (JUL)Low-0.9%
00:30Currency: audAUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JUL)Medium0.0%
00:30Currency: audAUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JUL)Medium2.9%
01:30Currency: audAUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUL)Low3.7%
04:30Currency: jpyJPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUL)Medium1.5%
05:00Currency: jpyJPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUL)Medium50.049.6
05:00Currency: jpyJPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUL)Medium49
05:45Currency: chfCHF Unemployment Rate (JUL)Medium2.8%2.8%
05:45Currency: chfCHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)Medium3.0%3.0%
06:30Currency: eurEUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (JUL)Low99
08:30Currency: eurEUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (AUG)Medium3.45.3
22:45Currency: nzdNZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JUL)Medium0.5%1.2%
22:45Currency: nzdNZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUL)Medium0.5%0.8%
23:01Currency: gbpGBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JUL)Low-0.5%-0.6%
23:01Currency: gbpGBP RICS House Price Balance (JUL)Medium-28%-27%
Tue
Aug 9
Currency: gbpGBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUL)Medium0.1%
Currency: cnyCNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JUL)Medium2.8%
Currency: eurEUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUL)Low-0.6%
Currency: eurEUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUL)Low8.5%
01:30Currency: audAUD Home Loans (JUN)Medium0.8%4.4%
01:30Currency: cnyCNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)Medium7.5%7.1%
01:30Currency: audAUD Investment Lending (JUN)Low4.4%
01:30Currency: audAUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JUN)Low2.2%
01:30Currency: audAUD NAB Business Confidence (JUL)Medium0
01:30Currency: audAUD NAB Business Conditions (JUL)Low2
02:00Currency: cnyCNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)Medium14.6%15.1%
02:00Currency: cnyCNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUL)Medium14.3%14.3%
02:00Currency: cnyCNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)Medium6.4%
02:00Currency: cnyCNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL)Medium25.5%25.6%
02:00Currency: cnyCNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)Medium17.7%17.7%
02:00Currency: cnyCNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUL)Medium17.0%16.8%
05:00Currency: jpyJPY Consumer Confidence (JUL)Medium37.035.3
05:45Currency: chfCHF SECO Consumer Confidence (JUL)Medium-5-1
06:00Currency: eurEUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)Low-1.0%4.3%
06:00Currency: eurEUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)Low-1.5%3.7%
06:00Currency: eurEUR German Current Account (euros) (JUN)Low6.9B
06:00Currency: eurEUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUN)Medium14.0B14.8B
06:00Currency: jpyJPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUL P)Medium53.5%
06:45Currency: eurEUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (JUN)Low-68.4B
08:30Currency: gbpGBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)Low0.4%0.9%
08:30Currency: gbpGBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)Medium0.2%-0.8%
08:30Currency: gbpGBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUN)Low0.2%1.8%
08:30Currency: gbpGBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN)Medium2.8%2.8%
08:30Currency: gbpGBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN)Medium-£-8100-£8478
08:30Currency: gbpGBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUN)Low-£4800-£5109
08:30Currency: gbpGBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN)Low-£3600-£4060
11:30Currency: jpyJPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUL)Medium90.8
12:15Currency: cadCAD Housing Starts (JUL)Medium195.0K197.4K
12:30Currency: usdUSD Unit Labor Costs (2Q P)Low2,4%0.7%
12:30Currency: usdUSD Non-Farm Productivity (2Q P)Low1.8%
14:00Currency: usdUSD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (AUG)Low42.041.4
18:15Currency: usdUSD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (AUG 9)High0.25%0.25%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY BOJ to Publish Minutes of July 11-12 Board MeetingHigh
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q)Low2.7%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUN)Medium0.9%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (JUL)Low0.0%-0.1%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (JUL)Low2.6%2.5%
Wed
Aug 10
Currency: cnyCNY New Yuan Loans (JUL)High633.9B
Currency: cnyCNY Money Supply - M0 (YoY) (JUL)Low14.4%
Currency: cnyCNY Money Supply - M1 (YoY) (JUL)Low13.1%
Currency: cnyCNY Money Supply - M2 (YoY) (JUL)Low15.9%
Currency: gbpGBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence (JUL)Medium51
00:30Currency: audAUD Westpac Consumer Confidence s.a. (MoM) (AUG)Medium-8.3%
00:30Currency: audAUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (AUG)Low92.8
01:30Currency: audAUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (2Q)Medium
02:00Currency: cnyCNY Trade Balance (USD) (JUL)Medium$27.40B$22.27B
02:00Currency: cnyCNY Exports (YoY%) (JUL)Low17.0%17.9%
02:00Currency: cnyCNY Imports (YoY%) (JUL)Low22.0%19.3%
06:00Currency: eurEUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL F)Medium0.4%0.4%
06:00Currency: eurEUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL F)High2.4%2.4%
06:00Currency: eurEUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL F)Medium0.5%0.5%
06:00Currency: eurEUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL F)High2.4%2.4%
06:45Currency: eurEUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)Low2.0%
06:45Currency: eurEUR French Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)Low2.6%
06:45Currency: eurEUR French Current Account (euros) (JUN)Low-5.5B
06:45Currency: eurEUR French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUN)Low-0.1%1.5%
06:45Currency: eurEUR French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN)Low6.8%5.4%
09:30Currency: gbpGBP Bank of England Inflation ReportHigh
11:00Currency: usdUSD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 5)Low
14:00Currency: usdUSD JOLTs Job Openings (JUN)Low2974
14:00Currency: usdUSD Wholesale Inventories (JUN)Low1.0%1.8%
14:30Currency: usdUSD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 5)Low
14:30Currency: usdUSD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 5)Low
14:30Currency: usdUSD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 5)Low
14:30Currency: usdUSD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 5)Low
14:30Currency: usdUSD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (AUG 5)Low
18:00Currency: usdUSD Monthly Budget Statement (JUL)Medium-$140.0B-$43.1B
22:30Currency: nzdNZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUL)Medium54.3
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Machine Orders (MoM) (JUN)Medium1.8%3.0%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Machine Orders (YoY) (JUN)Medium11.3%10.5%
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 5)Low
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 5)Low
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 5)Low
23:50Currency: jpyJPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 5)Low
Thu
Aug 11
01:00Currency: audAUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (AUG)Low3.4%
01:00Currency: nzdNZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (AUG)Low109.4
01:00Currency: nzdNZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (AUG)Low-2.3%
01:30Currency: audAUD Employment Change (JUL)High23.4K
01:30Currency: audAUD Unemployment Rate (JUL)High4.9%
01:30Currency: audAUD Full Time Employment Change (JUL)Medium59.0K
01:30Currency: audAUD Part Time Employment Change (JUL)Medium-35.6K
01:30Currency: audAUD Participation Rate (JUL)Low65.6%
08:00Currency: eurEUR ECB Publishes Aug. Monthly ReportHigh
12:30Currency: cadCAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUN)Low0.3%0.4%
12:30Currency: cadCAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JUN)Medium2.1%1.9%
12:30Currency: cadCAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUN)Low-0.8B
12:30Currency: usdUSD Trade Balance (JUN)Medium-$48.0B-$50.2B
12:30Currency: usdUSD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 5)Low401K400K
12:30Currency: usdUSD Continuing Claims (JUL 30)Low3725
13:45Currency: usdUSD Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (AGU 7)Low
14:30Currency: usdUSD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 5)Low
22:45Currency: nzdNZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (2Q)Medium0.9%
Fri
Aug 12
03:00Currency: nzdNZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (JUL)Low61.4%
04:30Currency: jpyJPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN F)Low
04:30Currency: jpyJPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN F)Medium
04:30Currency: jpyJPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JUN)Low12.8%
05:30Currency: eurEUR French Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL)Low-0.3%0.1%
05:30Currency: eurEUR French Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL)Low2.3%2.3%
05:30Currency: eurEUR French Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)Low-0.3%0.1%
05:30Currency: eurEUR French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)Low2.2%2.1%
05:30Currency: eurEUR French Consumer Price Index Ex Tobacco Index (JUL)Low122,19122.49
05:30Currency: eurEUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q P)Low0.3%0.9%
05:30Currency: eurEUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q P)Low2.0%2.2%
06:45Currency: eurEUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (2Q P)Low0.4%
06:45Currency: eurEUR French Wages (QoQ) (2Q P)Low1.0%
08:00Currency: eurEUR Italian Trade Balance (Total) (euros) (JUN)Low-2407M
08:00Currency: eurEUR Italian Trade Balance Eu (euros) (JUN)Low-600M
09:00Currency: eurEUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUN)Low0.0%0.1%
09:00Currency: eurEUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN)Medium4.2%4.0%
09:00Currency: eurEUR Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (JUL F)Low0.3%0.3%
09:00Currency: eurEUR Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (JUL F)Low2.7%2.7%
09:00Currency: eurEUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL F)Low-1.7%-1.7%
09:00Currency: eurEUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL F)Low2.1%2.1%
12:30Currency: usdUSD Advance Retail Sales (JUL)High0.5%0.1%
12:30Currency: usdUSD Retail Sales Less Autos (JUL)Medium0.2%0.0%
12:30Currency: usdUSD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (JUL)Medium0.2%0.2%
13:55Currency: usdUSD U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG P)High63.063.7
14:00Currency: usdUSD Business Inventories (JUN)Medium0.6%1.0%