The IMF’s Lagarde ‘ downside risks’ are high

Economic world ' dangerous New Phase ' IMF

The world economy has entered a "dangerous new phase," according to the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. As a result, the international lending organization has sharply downgraded its economic outlook for the United States and Europe through the end of next year.

The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow just 1.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2012. That's down from its June forecast of 2.5 percent in 2011 and 2.7 percent next year.

To achieve even that still-low level of growth, the U.S. economy would need to expand at a much faster rate in the second half of the year than its 0.7 percent annual pace in the first six months.

Most economists expect growth of between 1.5 percent and 2 percent in the final two quarters. Though an improvement, it wouldn't be enough to lower the unemployment rate. The rate has been 9 percent or higher in all but two months since the recession officially ended more than two years ago.

"The global economy has entered a dangerous new phase," said Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist. "The recovery has weakened considerably. Strong policies are needed to improve the outlook and reduce the risks."

The IMF has also lowered its outlook for the 17 countries that use the euro. It predicts 1.6 percent growth this year and 1.1 percent next year, down from its June projections of 2 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.

The gloomier forecast for Europe is based on worries that euro nations won't be able to contain their debt crisis and keep it from destabilizing the region.

"Markets have clearly become more skeptical about the ability of many countries to stabilize their public debt," Blanchard said. "Fear of the unknown is high."

Overall, the IMF predicts global growth of 4 percent for both years. Stronger growth in China, India, Brazil and other developing countries should offset weaker output in the United States and Europe.

Financial turmoil and slow growth are feeding on each other in both the United States and Europe, IMF officials say. Europe's debt crisis is causing banks to reduce lending and hold onto cash. Sharp stock market drops in the United States over the summer have hurt consumer and business confidence and will likely reduce spending. That slows growth, which leads many investors to shift money out of stocks and into safer investments, such as Treasury bonds.

In Europe, slower growth will make it harder for stressed nations to get their debt under control.

U.S. and European policymakers must act more decisively to cut budget deficits, the IMF said.

European banks need to boost their capital buffers more quickly and beyond new minimum levels set to come into force in 2019, the IMF said.

European banks have seen their stocks slide sharply this summer on fears that their exposure to the government debt of shaky countries like Greece could result in big losses.

Having extra capital would bolster confidence in the banking sector and shield Europe's economy from the impact of jitters in financial markets.

But the IMF's demand clashes with the position of the European Union, which limits how much assistance member states can provide to their banks.

The U.S. economy faces longer-lasting problems that go beyond high gas prices and disruptions caused by the Japan crisis, the IMF said.

Employers are adding few jobs and giving out meager pay raises. Many homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Banks are keeping credit tight.

All those trends are holding back consumer spending. Unemployment is likely to average 9 percent next year, the IMF's report said, echoing a recent estimate by the Obama administration.

President Barack Obama's proposal to cut taxes and spend more on infrastructure should provide much-needed short-term stimulus, the IMF said. But it needs to be paired with a longer-term plan to reduce the deficit over, the report said. The timing of the budget cuts is key, Blanchard said.

Budget cuts "cannot be too fast or it will kill growth," Blanchard said in a statement. "It cannot be too slow or it will kill credibility."

President Obama on Monday proposed more than $3 trillion of tax increases and spending cuts over 10 years. His proposal will be considered by a congressional panel charged with finding $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction this year.

Both Obama's jobs proposal and the tax increases face stiff opposition from Republicans. They oppose any tax increases and have strongly criticized the president's plans.

The 187-member nation fund conducts economic analysis and lends money to countries in financial distress. It will hold its annual meetings with the World Bank later this week in Washington.

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Obama Tax, falling Market's, Greek Desperation

Greek's Conference marathon to continue : Desperation, palpable 


Greece's conference call with the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank could last until Tuesday or later, according to published reports. Markets around the world have been in turmoil during recent days over the possibility of a Greek default. Monday's conference call came after Greece Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos promised to hurry budget reforms and make cuts to the nation's civil-service staff. 

Dollar Libor at the yearly High :


The cost to borrow money in dollars remained at the highest level in more than a year on Monday while the rate to borrow euros was little changed. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month dollar loans traded at 0.35133%, little changed from Friday and up from 0.34289% a week ago, according to FactSet Research. The three-month Libor rate for euros was little changed at 1.48375%, near the highest since early 2009. The one-week Libor rate for euros was 1.05063%, also unchanged from Friday and down from higher levels seen in early August.


Gold Sinks with all metals and Commodities :


 Gold futures fell 2% Monday to close at their lowest level in more than three weeks, pressured by broad losses in the U.S. stock market and commodities, as a stronger U.S. dollar dulled demand for the metal. Gold for December delivery fell $35.80 to close at $1,778.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest closing level for futures prices since Aug. 25. Given how long the European debt crisis has been going on, it's no surprise that gold's failing to get a lift from the Greek debt concerns and right now, the movement in gold is really focused on the stronger U.S. dollar, said Jeffrey Wright, senior analyst of metals and mining equity research at Global Hunter Securities.

Obama's tax adventure :

 In a blunt rejoinder to congressional Republicans, President Barack Obama called for $1.5 trillion in new taxes Monday, part of a total 10-year deficit reduction package totaling more than $3 trillion. He vowed to veto any deficit reduction package that cuts benefits to Medicare recipients but does not raise taxes on the wealthy and big corporations.

"We can't just cut our way out of this hole," the president said.

The president's proposal would predominantly hit upper income taxpayers but would also reduce spending in mandatory benefit programs, including Medicare and Medicaid, by $580 billion. It also counts savings of $1 trillion over 10 years from the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.

The deficit reduction plan represents an economic bookend to the $447 billion in tax cuts and new public works spending that Obama has proposed as a short-term measure to stimulate the economy and create jobs. And it gives the president a voice in a process that will be dominated by a joint congressional committee charged with recommending deficit reductions of up to $1.5 trillion.

His plan served as a sharp counterpoint to Republican lawmakers, who have insisted that tax increases should play no part in taming the nation's escalating national debt. Obama's plan would end Bush-era tax cuts for top earners and would limit their deductions.

"It's only right we ask everyone to pay their fair share," Obama said from the Rose Garden at the White House.

In issuing his threat to veto any Medicare benefits that aren't paired with tax increases on upper-income people, Obama said: "I will not support any plan that puts all the burden for closing our deficit on ordinary Americans."

Responding to a complaint from Republicans about his proposed tax on the wealthy, Obama added: "This is not class warfare. It's math."

The Republican reaction was swift and derisive.

"Veto threats, a massive tax hike, phantom savings, and punting on entitlement reform is not a recipe for economic or job growth_or even meaningful deficit reduction," Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement issued minutes after the president's announcement. "The good news is that the Joint Committee is taking this issue far more seriously than the White House."

Obama's proposal comes amid Democratic demands that Obama take a tougher stance against Republicans. And while the plan stands little chance of passing Congress, its populist pitch is one that the White House believes the public can support.

The core of the president's plan totals just over $2 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years. It would let Bush-era tax cuts for upper income earners expire, limit deductions for wealthier filers and close loopholes and end some corporate tax breaks. It also would cut $580 billion from mandatory programs, including $248 billion from Medicare. It also targets subsidies to farmers and benefits programs for federal employees.

Officials cast Obama's plan as his vision for deficit reduction, and distinguished it from the negotiations he had with House Speaker John Boehner in July as Obama sought to avoid a government default.

As a result, Obama's proposal includes no changes in Social Security and no increase in the Medicare eligibility age, which the president had been willing to accept this summer.

Administration officials also said that Obama's $1.5 trillion in new taxes is a goal that Congress could achieve through a broad overhaul of the tax code. They said the president's specific proposals represent one way to get to that goal under the existing tax code.

Coupled with about $1 trillion in cuts already approved by Congress and signed by the president, overall deficit reduction would total more than $4 trillion, a number many economists cite as a minimum threshold to bring the nation's debt under control.

Key features of Obama's plan:

—$1.5 trillion in new revenue, which would include about $800 billion realized over 10 years from repealing the Bush-era tax rates for couples making more than $250,000. It also would place limits on deductions for wealthy filers and end certain corporate loopholes and subsidies for oil and gas companies.

—$580 billion in cuts in mandatory benefit programs, including $248 billion in Medicare and $72 billion in Medicaid and other health programs. Other mandatory benefit programs include farm subsidies and federal employee benefits. Administration officials said 90 percent of the $248 billion in 10-year Medicare cuts would be squeezed from service providers. The plan does shift some additional costs to beneficiaries, but those changes would not start until 2017.

—$430 billion in savings from lower interest payment on the national debt.

— $1 trillion in savings from drawing down military forces from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Republicans have ridiculed the war savings as gimmicky, but House Republicans included them in their budget proposal this year and Boehner had agreed to count them as savings during debt ceiling negotiations with the president this summer.

Illustrating Obama's populist pitch on tax revenue, he suggested that Congress establish a minimum tax on taxpayers making $1 million or more in income. The measure — the White House calls it the "Buffett Rule" for billionaire investor Warren Buffett — is designed to prevent millionaires from taking advantage of lower tax rates on investment earnings than what middle-income taxpayers pay on their wages.

That minimum rate, however, is not included in the White House revenue projections. Officials said it was a suggestion for Congress if it were to undertake an overhaul of the tax code.

.At issue is the difference between a taxpayer's tax bracket and the effective tax rate that taxpayer pays. Millionaires face a 35 percent tax bracket, while middle income filers fall in the 15 or 25 percent bracket. But investment income is taxed at 15 percent and Buffett has complained that he and other wealthy people have been "coddled long enough" and shouldn't be paying a smaller share of their income in federal taxes than middle-class taxpayers.

Associated Press

G-7, Communique : Vow to talk and Enjoy Volatality

Agreed terms of reference by G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors

We met at a time of new challenges to global economic recovery, with significant challenges to growth, fiscal deficits and sovereign debt, stemming from past accumulated imbalances. This is reflected in heightened tensions in financial markets. There are now clear signs of a slowdown in global growth. We are committed to a strong and coordinated international response to these challenges.

We are taking strong actions to maintain financial stability, restore confidence and support growth. In the US, President Obama has put forward a significant package to strengthen growth and employment through public investments, tax incentives, and targeted jobs measures, combined with fiscal reforms designed to restore fiscal sustainability over the medium term. Euro area countries are implementing the decisions taken on July 21 to address financial tensions, notably through the flexibilisation of the EFSF, reaffirming their inflexible determination to honor fully their own individual sovereign signatures and their commitments to sustainable fiscal conditions and structural reforms. Japan is implementing substantial fiscal measures for reconstruction from the earthquake while ensuring the commitment to medium-term fiscal consolidation.

We reaffirmed our shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system, and our support for market-determined exchange rates. Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will consult closely in regard to actions in exchange markets and will cooperate as appropriate.

Concerns over the pace and future of the recovery underscore the need for a concerted effort at a global level in support of strong, sustainable and balanced growth. We must all set out and implement ambitious and growth-friendly fiscal consolidation plans rooted within credible fiscal frameworks. Fiscal policy faces a delicate balancing act. Given the still fragile nature of the recovery, we must tread the difficult path of achieving fiscal adjustment plans while supporting economic activity, taking into account different national circumstances.

We look forward to working with our colleagues in the G20 and the IMF in the coming weeks to rebalance demand and strengthen global growth. As previously agreed, structural reforms will make an important contribution in this regard.

Monetary policies will maintain price stability and continue to support economic recovery. Central Banks stand ready to provide liquidity to banks as required. We will take all necessary actions to ensure the resilience of banking systems and financial markets. In this context we reaffirm our commitment to implement fully Basel III.