To be Or Not to be

"Fed's Yellen sees rates hikes, mostly good economic picture" - http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0YS142

Will Market Optimism survive time..?

It has been string of Bad news in various fronts that have played like unharmonized discourse from Wednesday April 12th 2016. 
1) Banking Results showing ' Charred Balance Sheets' 
2) Canadian Fire and Fall UAE Oil production supported and Confirmed Crude to remain above $45 for Longish time.
3) U.S Consumer shifted from ' Mall Culture'  with Macey,  Groupon, like big retailers losing ground and Margin. While Apple showing no promises dragging below $90. While Donald Trump continues with weird but Populist talk and blowing lungs on amazon. The chance of FED raising rates in June have Increasing.  S&P reached 945 effortlessly. 
4) Indian Government rose from Slumber and announced Revision in Mauritius Treaty and announcements of Capital Gains on FII and PNote. Well, followed by SEBI targeting PNote. With Macho Swamy calling for removal of Dr. Rajan for keeping interest rates high, shivering Reason. The Bankruptcy Code Bill awaiting ended with doubt of implementation.
5) The weekend started with Bank of Baroda disappointment.  IMF showing ' Slowing Funds'  towards emerging economies. With Saturday, evening Slowing China Growth was re-sound.
6) Indian MET announcement of delayed Monsoon shall create Doubts.
.  Finally,  as Tamilnad goes to poll on 16th the State Election exit polls shall be available at about 6.00 PM.
Can they point for any respite..?
But, Foreign investors with no returns for an year will survive the time for revival?

Will Dr Rajan shall Survive Swamy?

Dr Rajan RBI's. Governor ending Term in September 2016.
It has been a speculation about Dr. Rajan's straight forwardness and intelligence against Dr.  Subramanyam Swamy's coy.  With Indian ruling party having not anointed Dr. Rajan, he appeared ' External' and Tolerated Eye Soar, for last 2 years. 
Dr Swamy, who Senior BJP Leader has stirred Indians with statement against Dr Rajan.  His venting hot air show disgruntled elements in ruling party, demanding Pound of Flesh.
Whether, his call is backed by F. M.  and big houses like whose entry in Indian banking is blocked and many PSU banker and Industrial houses whose accounts are in public glare..?

Lung Exercises: Strong Legs Support Lungs

The Exit Polls for Book Out Profits before Vanish.

The Live Media seems to be in race to show that, a Particular Party is in Win. While, the English Reading Indians and Foreign Media has been ganghoo

The Crucial matter to think is will BJP poll less Votes and Still beat the Opposition..?

Its time that, Investor should not become Greedy but fearful of the out come of the Adverse Election Results, Which are hyped up so much in one direction, that smallest of the disappointment shall put the whole Edifice of the market to ground like a straws in the wind.

But, the fear and greed always run the market.

The Best way to deal is controlling greed and Booking Profit..!

Will Equities continue the March to year end

The Equities have been out performing the other markets in last 3 months and have taken many aback. The Left outs have been sort of blaming on ' Liquidity Tap' in US and European Banks and faulting markets for playing this ' CLiff Hanger'.
While, Commodities and particularly Oil has fully recovered the ' Paralysis ' Much faster than thought by any one. Gold and Silver not falling in sympathy, While ' Equities' running ' blind Fold' action. The USD still remains a suspect. And, lastly bonds in US and Europe are ' dead wood'
Indian markets struggling from the brink and remains as suspect.

Will this ' contrariness ' sustain itself..? Many think Yes and more think and lurk on the background to enter.
However, the discipline investor should wait for the last episode of this Play and keep waiting for the next day till .. Markets scale a new peak. Markets are going up for end of ' selling ' season in June and likely to test the virtue of being patient But, the upcoming FOMC meeting shall be the end of the ' Game of Waiting' and shall be the decider. 

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Fidelity India Fact sheet for December 2011

Fidelity equity fact sheet_december2011

View more documents from Atul Baride.

Stock Sweetness and bitter pill

The Equity markets world over sprung after long long time, looking past European Crisis and China's slowdown and carrying the US growth prospects in both Hands. Markets like an efficient animal smell the growth and like a bad engineer spoil it with huge Margin in the downside and Upside. The swings are really breath taking and wild.


Unlike, in 70s to early this century commodities hardly tracked and coyed the equities. But, with the continuous Money injections and abetting by the US FED the co relation seems to be getting entrenched and creating trading pattern. The Equity-commodity unison seems to be obvious and reasonable and most importantly acting as proxies for various currencies like Canadian $, US $, Euro and lately developing world and special reference to Asian Currencies. The Cocktail tastes good and healthy now, and it seems the indicators have started showing divergences and likely to break sooner than ever. The Early indicator seems to be Gold..


Next question lies Who will loose and break the tempo and momentum...?

Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Review - 2011-12

Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments: Third Quarter Review 2011-12 The Reserve Bank of India today released the Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments Third Quarter Review 2011-12. The document serves as a backdrop to the Monetary Policy Statement to be announced on January 24, 2012. Highlights:   Overall Outlook While growth outlook weakens, inflation risks remain The Growth outlook has weakened as a result of adverse global and domestic factors. However, inflation and expectations of inflation remain high and upside risks emanate from exchange rate pass-through, revisions in administered prices and higher-than-expected government revenue spending. Consequently, monetary actions will need to strike a balance between risks to growth and inflation. Growth in 2011-12 is moderating more than was expected earlier. The business climate has weakened. The slack in investment and net external demand may keep the pace of recovery slow in 2012-13. While in the short run, moderating inflation will provide some space for monetary policy to address growth concerns, in the absence of structural measures to address supply bottlenecks, this will be, at best, a temporary respite. In addition, the expansionary fiscal stance has emerged as an upside risk to inflation. Global Economic Conditions Global growth moderates, financial market stress rises The global economy seems to be headed for another downturn after just three years. The recovery is likely to lose traction due to the continuing euro area debt crisis. As fiscal austerity progresses, the euro area could enter into a recession. With growth decelerating even in emerging and developing economies (EDEs), the spillovers from euro area are likely to pull down global growth. An adverse feedback loop between bank and sovereign debt brought euro area closer to contagion across the region. Tightening credit conditions, rising risk premia, deleveraging, weakening growth in the euro area are keeping global financial markets under stress. Going forward, further softening in commodity prices on the back of weaker global growth is likely in 2012-13. However, upside risks to the oil price remain, including from recent geo-political uncertainty. Indian Economy Output Global linkages reinforce domestic factors to slow down economy Agricultural prospects remain encouraging but moderation is visible in industrial activity and some services. Industrial slack has emerged as export and domestic demand has decelerated. A strong co-movement between domestic and global IIP series is observed. The RBI survey shows significant growth in new orders for some industries, but flat capacity utilisation in Q2 of 2011-12. Growth in 2011-12 is likely to moderate to below trend given the external conditions, dampened investment demand and prevailing high level of inflation. Growth outlook will depend on global conditions and domestic policy reforms Aggregate Demand External and investment demand may drag growth Growth has been impacted by lower external and investment demand which may also act as a drag during 2012-13. There has been a sharp decline in planned corporate fixed investment since H2 of 2010-11 and this trend has accentuated further in Q2 of 2011-12. Private consumption continues to moderate. There has been some slackening of corporate sales growth, reflecting a gradual waning of demand. Available early results for Q3 of 2011-12, however, indicate healthy sales growth. The central government’s deficit indicators are under duress due to higher subsidies and lower tax collections. Fiscal slippages during 2011-12 may complicate the task of aggregate demand management. Fiscal reforms, including the Direct Tax Code and the Goods and Services Tax are, therefore, needed to contain deficits in 2012-13. With a widening current account deficit (CAD), larger fiscal spending could affect growth and stability in the economy. The mounting revenue deficit is already putting fiscal position under strain and impacting the Government’s ability for capital spending. There is need for budgetary solutions to growing subsidy commitments and to rebalance public spending from consumption to investment, in order to enhance the potential growth rate of the economy. External Sector CAD risks have amplified as capital flows moderate Early indicators suggest that the current account came under increased pressure during Q3 of 2011-12. Notwithstanding rupee depreciation, exports decelerated but import demand remained strong, with inelastic demand for oil and rising gold imports. Upward risks to CAD have become more pronounced with likely moderation of software earnings. As capital flows also moderated since August 2011, financing pressure on the CAD translated into exchange rate pressures. Currencies of other EDEs running CAD came under similar pressures. Following the revival of equity flows in January 2012, exchange rate pressures have reduced somewhat. The composition of capital inflows has shifted in favour of debt, with a rise in the proportion of short-term flows. Vulnerability indicators have weakened moderately, though the net international investment position has improved. Going forward, there is need to reduce dependence on debt flows by encouraging renewed equity flows through acceleration of  policy reforms aimed at improving the investment climate Monetary and Liquidity Conditions Monetary growth keeps pace even as money market liquidity tightens Money market liquidity tightened   significantly   since   November 2011 partly due to dollar sales by RBI. However, monetary growth has kept pace with projections, on account of a rising money multiplier. The liquidity stress was handled by the Reserve Bank by injecting liquidity through open market operations, including repos under the LAF. Credit growth slowed below the indicative projection due to demand as well as supply side factors. Demand for credit weakened in response to slack in real   activity. Supply also slowed down with rising risk aversion stemming from deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and rising non-performing loans. Monetary policy has been significantly tightened since February 2010 with an effective increase of 525 bps in policy rates and a 100 bps increase in CRR. Factoring in increased downside risks to growth and the expected moderation in inflation, the policy rate was kept on hold in December 2011. The trajectory of the monetary cycle ahead will be shaped by the evolving growth-inflation dynamics. Financial Markets Financial markets come under pressure from global spillovers Global spillovers and macroeconomic deterioration resulted in pressures on the equity and currency markets. The sharp depreciation of the rupee during August-December 2011 contributed to a drop in foreign equity inflows which in turn, further weakened the rupee. The sudden stop in equity inflows also impacted investment financing. The impact was compounded by poor resource mobilisation in the primary capital market. The stress in the financial markets was mitigated by policy measures that included infusion of rupee and dollar liquidity. As a result, the rupee exchange rate appreciated and equity markets recovered in January 2012.  Call money rates have largely remained within the interest rate corridor and spikes were effectively contained. Price Situation Inflation is trending down, but upside risks remains significant Inflation is moderating led by sharp decline in food inflation and is broadly in line with the 7 per cent projection for March 2012. Primary food inflation declined sharply reflecting seasonal fall in vegetable prices and high base. However, as protein inflation continues due to structural demand-supply imbalances, the decline is expected to be short-lived. Inflation in non-food manufactured products remains persistently high, reflecting input cost pressures, partly resulting from the rupee depreciation that has offset the impact of softer global prices of some commodities. Upside risks to inflation persist from insufficient supply responses, exchange rate pass-through, suppressed inflation and an expansionary fiscal stance. Alpana Killawala Chief General Manager Press Release : 2011-2012/1180

Reliance Industries Press Release

Reliance Press Release is shared here for the Investor's to see themselves the most valuable Indian Company. It seems that Mr Mukesh Ambani has taken keen interest in many other sectors like 4G, retails, infra development and so on.
It is unfortunate that Reliance Industry has kept itself moving away from Oil and Gas Exploration and Refining sector. Absurd, as Mr Ambani is himself An expert Engineer but the Hostile Governmental Policies possibly have put the breaks on this sector.

Indian Government cashes on Gold Rush

The Phenomenal rise in Gold Price and its entry as a Investment Vehicle in the Last decade attracted many towards the precious metal. The Gold ETF's across the India became flavour and favour. Inspite, this rise the Indian Gold demand remain inelastic and more so Price Inefficient. In Mid 60s till mid 90s Gold remained as the Smuggler's Favourite and M/s Hajji Mastan and Co made a Huge moral victory by smuggling gold over drugs.
Mr Yashwant Sinha then finance Minister lowered the custom duty on Gold. 2001-2002:"In order to discourage smuggling I propose to reduce the duty on gold from Rs 400 per 10 grams to Rs 250 per 10 grams."- Yashwant Sinha.
Well, then Gold was trading at much Lower Price @ $ 300 per Ounce and RS 6000 about in Indian Currency .

The Call of Duty

In a bid to match the import duty with rising prices, the government trebled the customs duty on import of gold by increasing the duty twice by Rs. 100 each time, during the Fiscal Year 2009-10.

On 17^th January 2012 the government again changed the import duty and it has been set at 2% of value from the earlier import duty of flat Rs 300 per 10 grams. This means, at current price of Rs. 27,700 (rounded-off current gold price) for 10 grams of gold, while you used to pay Rs. 300 as customs duty, it will now increase to Rs.560 (approximately) per 10 grams. In other words, customs duty which amounted to 1.08% at current prices has increased to 2% of value; nearly double of the tariff.

What made the government raise the import duty on gold again? Here are a few probable reasons...

One, India is the world's largest consumer of gold and most of the gold demand is satisfied through imports. As consumption of gold increased, the value of gold imports also saw a rise. We know that higher imports require higher foreign exchange to pay for the import bill, causing a strain on the country's trade balances. Higher imports and rising gold prices worsened the rising trade deficit issue. As per December 2011 data, gold and silver imports grew at 53.8% to $45.5 billion.

Is Gold an Investment for Indians..?

Traditionally, Yes and quite wisely Gold is called Woman's Wealth ( Stree Dhan ). Its exchangeable and posses highest liquidity otherwise remains static in Value. Surely, No one has ever called it as trader's paradise.  

Does it make economic sense..

I think Gold at this price of Rs 27000/ looks tad costly but at Rs 20000 sure is a Buy.

Greece Debt affairs are stinking. Default to be timed..?

Press Statement from the Co-Chairmen of the Steering Committee of the Private Creditor-Investor Committee for Greec

Athens, January 13, 2012 — Charles Dallara and Jean Lemierre, Co-Chairs of the Steering Committee of the Private Creditor-Investor Committee (PCIC) for Greece, continued discussions today in Athens with Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos on a voluntary PSI for Greece, against the background of the October 26/27 Agreement with the Euro Area Leaders. Unfortunately, despite the efforts of Greece’s leadership, the proposal put forward by the Steering Committee of the PCIC—which involves an unprecedented 50% nominal reduction of Greece’s sovereign bonds in private investors’ hands and up to €100 billion of debt forgiveness— has not produced a constructive consolidated response by all parties, consistent with a voluntary exchange of Greek sovereign debt and the October 26/27 Agreement.

Under the circumstances, discussions with Greece and the official sector are paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach. We very much hope, however, that Greece, with the support of the Euro Area, will be in a position to re-engage constructively with the private sector with a view to finalizing a mutually acceptable agreement on a voluntary debt exchange consistent with the October 26/27 Agreement, in the best interest of both Greece and the Euro Area.

source :

It seems the Wild Goose of Greece is now cooked in fully. It will be matter of time and Timing when Greece shall be freed from the clutches of Lenders and Some strong European nations. 

The Private Lenders appear to given under coercion and buying time to pull Guns on Greece. The hard boiled talks, which amounted in ' Change of Guard' and ' Silent revolution ' in December put the curtain on what seems to be the ' Unfair Promise' . 

All this behind the curtain talks and veiled threats may not get the full glory of media. But, the hazed topic may soon appear like a Party spoiler and wealth destabilise the Europe, as the spring unwinds. 

SO ALL IN ALL, GREECE'S EXIT SEEMS TO BE MATTER OF TIME AND TIMING. Investor shall be better off, if they not venture in the fall ensuing.

Will politicians make common breath..? explains Neel Kashkari

Chaos Theory

• Debating a future of inflation vs. deflation is radically new territory for investors. The chaotic nature of the choice facing societies is whipsawing equity markets and dominating bottom-up factors.
• Equity investors seem to be pricing in a combination of outcomes, with the largest weighting going to a goldilocks, mild inflation scenario. But the market’s large daily swings reflect jumps back and forth as investors update the probabilities of very different destinations.

Once per quarter investment professionals from across PIMCO’s global offices gather in Newport Beach for our Economic Forum. These sessions have been the foundation of PIMCO’s investment process for years; we debate and update our short-term and long-term views for the global economy, and, from that, for individual asset classes, such as government bonds, corporate bonds, mortgages and stocks. Last month we gathered for our December Forum and the topic that dominated the discussion, as it has in recent quarters, was the fate of the euro. Will the eurozone break up? Will European governments impose extreme, deflationary austerity to control their deficits? Will the ECB monetize the region’s debts and risk inflation in order to preserve the common currency? 

This is a debate that has raged within PIMCO for quite a while. There is a wide range of opinions, each supported by relevant precedents and sound economic reasoning. Yet despite our intense focus, we don’t know the answer with certainty. 

Here in America we too face a similar question, though markets are not currently demanding an immediate answer. For the last few decades America has fueled its economic growth by borrowing and consuming, and, in doing so, has racked up large, unsustainable debt. Families that take on too much debt must eventually cut spending, either to pay back loans, or at least because banks stop lending them money. They are eventually forced into some combination of austerity and default. But countries with their own currencies have a choice: 1) austerity-induced deflation, or 2) print money and eventually trigger inflation, which makes their debts easier to pay off, while robbing creditors of the real return they were promised. Will we find the political will to cut spending? Or will we continue running large deficits? Will the Federal Reserve resume quantitative easing, in effect monetizing our debts? Will it unintentionally trigger inflation?

Listening to my colleagues make their arguments during the Forum, I was taken back to my days fifteen years ago when I was an engineering graduate student at the University of Illinois. You may wonder what a debate about the global economy has to do with engineering. It reminded me of one of my favorite classes: nonlinear systems – the study of natural and man-made systems that, at times, behave very oddly. Allow me to explain.

Most systems we interact with every day are linear: if you change an input to the system by a small amount, the output will also change by a small amount. Think about driving to work: if you leave your house 10 minutes early, you will usually arrive about 10 minutes early. If you turn up the flame on a stove a little, the pot of water will heat a little faster.

But some systems, under certain conditions, behave very differently. These systems are said to have “sensitive dependence on initial conditions” – very small changes of the inputs can lead to enormous variations of the output. Mathematicians have given these systems the label of being “chaotic” and experts in the field are called “chaoticians.” (The term “chaotician” always struck me as ridiculous. Could you imagine introducing yourself this way?) The weather is the best example of a real-life chaotic system. Predicting the weather beyond a few days is impossible because minor variations lead to large changes in the future. Go back to the driving example: if you leave 10 minutes late, rather than 10 minutes early, you might hit rush hour, and the extra 10 minutes ends up costing you an hour. Chaos theory describes the conditions under which a system changes from linear and smooth to highly nonlinear and violent, where minor changes to the inputs will lead to enormous variations of the output.

Western societies are facing a seemingly minor choice, but that choice will lead to vastly different endpoints for the global economy and for asset prices.

In a “normal” economic environment investors debate a narrow range of outcomes: will the U.S. grow by 2.8% or 3.2%? Will inflation remain at 2.0% or climb to 2.3%? Debating a future of inflation vs. deflation is radically new territory for investors. The chaotic nature of the choice facing societies is whipsawing equity markets and dominating bottom-up factors.

While we don’t know with certainty which path societies will choose, we can identify a few potential outcomes and make reasoned assessments of what they mean for the economy and for equities:

1. Austerity and deflation

Borrowing money to consume allows families and societies to live beyond their means – for a time. Once the debt accumulation has run its course, reality has to set back in. For a family that may mean getting rid of a second car, dining out less often or cuts which are far more painful. It necessarily means consuming less, and to the extent that consumption equates to standard of living, it likely also means a reduced living standard. Societies face a similar challenge. The U.S. and parts of Europe have enjoyed exaggerated living standards enabled by borrowing from our future. Now that creditors are warning us they won’t let this continue forever, governments may reach consensus to cut spending and/or increase taxes to bring budgets into balance. Whatever the mix, by definition this likely means lower economic growth and perhaps a lower level of overall economic activity until debts are worked off and real growth restored. Deflation runs the risk of creating a vicious cycle, where prices fall, causing wages to fall, causing spending to fall, causing prices to fall further. This is a lower risk for a growing population such as in the United States, whereas Japan continues to suffer from such stagnation today. Europe’s demographics are much worse than America’s. The outlook for equities in this environment is negative in the short run and potentially very negative in the long run if a deflationary cycle kicks off. Corporate earnings at some point must be linked to economic growth, and stock prices represent the present value of a future stream of earnings. In a deflationary environment cash will be king – because your purchasing power will increase by just sitting on the sidelines.

2. Explicit default
The scenario of governments not paying back their creditors is extremely unlikely for countries that have their own currencies. Why default on your debt, which would trigger a crisis of confidence in your economy, when you can simply print more money? Of course, unpredictable politics can make the unthinkable possible, as we came dangerously close to seeing this summer with Washington’s debt ceiling debacle. In Europe it is likely some smaller countries, such as Greece, will default on their debt. They simply have taken on more debt than their economies can reasonably hope to pay back. And they don’t have their own currency, so printing drachma is not an option. It is hard to imagine a scenario where an explicit default would be good for equities. Just how bad depends on the size of the country defaulting and the extent of the preparations put in place to minimize the damage. For example, if countries have capitalized their banks to withstand the losses from a Greek default and the ECB funds Italy and Spain so they are not at risk of contagion, the impact to equities should be more muted. An uncontrolled default, or a default of a larger country would be very bad for risk assets and could trigger a deflationary spiral described above.

3. Mild inflation
Mild inflation is the goldilocks scenario: central banks print money to help fund governments while they employ structural reforms to make their economies more competitive and generate long-term growth. Such structural reforms take time to produce results, often many years. Printing money provides governments with that time while, in theory, reducing the sacrifices citizens must make, and the inflation that usually follows makes the fixed debt stock easier to service, because prices (and hence taxes) increase. It often results in a falling currency, which makes exports more competitive. It is easy to see why countries with their own currencies usually choose inflation as the preferred response to overwhelming debt. Although creditors suffer because the purchasing power they were expecting has been reduced, society has to make fewer hard choices and can continue to enjoy its exaggerated standard of living until the pro-growth economic reforms come to the rescue. In a scenario of mild inflation, equities should do well. Prices are contained, the economy functions and corporate profits should continue increasing. Of course, if policymakers do not use this time to implement real economic reforms, which can still be painful for certain constituencies, mild inflation doesn’t solve anything. It just delays the necessary day of reckoning.

4. Runaway inflation
The danger of mild inflation is that it may not remain mild. Inflation is driven by expectations, the collective beliefs of what the future holds that reside in the minds of millions of people. If people expect prices to go up, they will demand higher wages so they can maintain their standard of living. This will increase the cost of labor, pushing the cost of goods higher. A vicious cycle of inflation can take hold as prices climb higher and higher. The U.S. suffered from double-digit inflation in the 1970s, and in an extreme case, Germany suffered from hyper-inflation following World War I. Runaway inflation is devastating because an economy loses its anchor. People are afraid to hold cash because their purchasing power drops rapidly and so they must hoard real assets. Interest rates soar causing investments to plummet. Central bankers are generally afraid of attempting to induce mild inflation for fear they may nudge expectations more than they hoped. Nudging the collective beliefs of millions of people is an inexact science. The Federal Reserve is cautiously experimenting with its expectations-nudging-arsenal with its recent communication innovations. Runaway inflation would be very bad for most risk assets and equities in particular because of the devastating affects on real economic growth and the increases in costs of production and of capital. A loss of faith in paper currencies would mean gold and real assets would likely be king.

5. Miraculous growth
A list of potential solutions to our unsustainable debt load would be incomplete without including a high growth scenario. It is true there could be a major breakthrough in, for example, energy technology that spurs extraordinary economic growth, which would drive tax revenues higher and enable governments to pay down their debt without asking their citizens to give up their exaggerated living standards. In such a scenario, equity returns would likely be very strong, especially for the sector enjoying the innovation. The technology sector in the 1990s was an example. However, such a scenario today is low-probability. We invest based on what we think is likely to happen, rather than what we would like to happen. Policymakers can’t count on a growth miracle and neither can investors. And don’t forget the bumper tax revenues of the 1990s actually led to increased government spending in some cases when politicians wrongly assumed the increased tax revenues would last forever.

While the expected value of two equally possible outcomes, 0 and 1, is 0.5, there is zero chance the outcome will actually be 0.5. It will either be 0 or 1. Based on the level of the stock market today, with a price to earnings ratio of about 13x in the developed world and 11x in the emerging economies, equity investors seem to be pricing in a combination of these outcomes, with the largest weighting going to the goldilocks, mild inflation scenario. But the market’s large daily swings reflect jumps back and forth as investors update the probabilities of these very different destinations.

I believe societies will in the end choose inflation because it is the less painful option for the largest number of its citizens. I am hopeful central banks will be effective in preventing runaway inflation. But it is going to be a long, bumpy journey until the destination becomes clear. This equity market is best for long-term investors who can withstand extended volatility. Day traders beware: chaos is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Mutual Fund fundas for all

The  Mutual fund basics are not only theory but its real edge for investors who want to build there portfolio alongwith the various cycles in economic activities and investment gyrations.

Economic Developments, Risks to the Outlook, and Housing Market Policies :Governor Elizabeth A. Duke

Economic Developments, Risks to the Outlook, and Housing Market Policies

It is the start of a new year, the traditional time for making forecasts, so I am pleased to be here today to offer my perspective on recent economic developments and on the outlook for the U.S. economy. After a rough patch early in 2011, the economy appears to have regained a little momentum near the end of the year, and I expect that it will most likely continue on a path of gradual recovery in 2012. Because conditions in the housing market are such a strong drag on recovery, I will also outline some initiatives that I believe have the potential to accelerate improvement in that sector. Before I begin, I want to emphasize that the views that I will be presenting are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Board of Governors.

Recent Economic Developments
Following the sharp downturn in 2008 and the first half of 2009, real economic activity has now been expanding for more than two years (chart 1). However, the recovery has not been as strong as might have been expected given the steepness of the contraction. Early last year it threatened to stall out altogether. To be sure, economic growth in the first half of last year was depressed by some transitory factors, including high energy prices and the effects of the tragic earthquake in Japan on the production of motor vehicles. Still, even as these influences on the economy waned over the second half of 2011, economic activity appears to have increased at only a moderate pace.

Perhaps the most telling measure of the subpar pace of recovery is the painfully slow improvement in the labor market. Employment gains were tepid last year and made only a small dent in the large number of people who are still out of work (chart 2). In recent months, there have been glimmers of hope seen in the job market. For example, payroll employment rose 200,000 in December and the unemployment rate, which had hovered around 9 percent for most of the year, fell to 8.5 percent, a rate that while still far too high was the lowest in 2-1/2 years (chart 3). That said, other economic data have improved more modestly, and the bulk of the evidence, including help-wanted advertising and surveys of employers' hiring plans, suggests that the job market is not poised for marked improvement in the months ahead. Indeed, my own expectation is that while the trend in unemployment will be gradually lower, the path to get there might be choppy.

On a brighter note, consumer spending looked a bit stronger in the latter part of last year after an anemic first half (chart 4). The pickup in consumer spending was fairly widespread through November and, although we don't yet have a full set of December data in hand, sales of motor vehicles remained solid at an annual rate of 13.5 million units last month, and reports of holiday spending were upbeat. That said, there are some reasons not to get too optimistic about this sector of the economy: Many of the underlying forces that typically support consumer spending are still quite weak, including the high unemployment rate, sluggish income growth, sentiment that remains relatively low despite recent improvements (chart 5), and the lingering effects of the earlier declines in household wealth.

Housing markets--which I will discuss in more detail shortly--have shown only slight signs of improvement: Housing demand and homebuilding (chart 6) continue to be restrained by weak income and sentiment, tight lending standards, and a large overhang of vacant properties (chart 7).

As for the business sector, the uncertain durability of the recovery appears to be discouraging businesses from decisively increasing their productive capacity. Notwithstanding a surge around mid-2011, on balance, firms appear to have increased their spending on equipment and structures at a less robust pace in 2011 than they did in the prior year. The pace of inventory accumulation was also quite modest. The most recent indicators suggest more of the same: Orders and shipments of capital goods have been subdued in the past few months, commercial vacancy rates remain elevated (chart 8), and most indicators of business sentiment remain mediocre (chart 9).

The government sector also continues to be a substantial drag on activity, both at the federal level (chart 10)--where defense and nondefense spending look to have dropped last year--and at the state and local levels (chart 11). The declines in state and local government expenditures reflect continuing cutbacks in both employment and construction outlays. The budgets of these governments are quite strained by the ongoing phase-out of federal stimulus grants and the weakness of local tax collections.

One area of the economy that has been performing relatively favorably is the trade sector. In the third quarter, the annualized growth rate of exports of domestically produced goods and services was about 5 percent, while net exports--that is, exports less imports--contributed nearly one half of a percentage point to the increase in real GDP, about one-fourth of the overall gain (chart 12). 

However, in recent weeks, many forecasters have weakened their global outlooks substantially, which certainly does not bode well for U.S. exports going forward.

Turning to inflation, after a surge early last year, the price index for personal consumption expenditures decelerated considerably toward the end of the year and rose at an annual rate of just 1/4 percent in the three months ending in November (chart 13). This welcome news likely reflects the waning of the effects of the large run-ups in the prices of crude oil and other commodities early last year as well as some reversal of the increase in motor vehicle prices that followed the earthquake-related supply disruptions last spring.

The Economic Outlook
Looking forward, my baseline forecast is for economic activity to gradually pick up steam over the next year or so. I recognize that some of the factors holding back the pace of activity are likely to persist. For example, with sluggish employment growth, household income may not be strong enough to support sustained increases in consumer spending. Government spending will likely continue to be a drag on economic growth going forward. Under current federal law and most projected outcomes of congressional budget negotiations, some ongoing fiscal restraint seems probable at the federal level. Moreover, state and local budgets are likely to remain under severe pressure for some time, leading these jurisdictions to continue to scale back spending. And, as I said earlier, a weak forecast for global growth indicates that net exports may provide less support to the U.S. recovery going forward.

However, I do believe that the headwinds from tight credit conditions for businesses and households, with the exception of mortgage credit, are beginning to subside. Financial institutions in the United States have stronger capital positions than they did in 2008, and the Federal Reserve continues to regularly test the ability of the largest institutions to withstand economic stress (chart 14). Bank deposits have grown substantially, thereby allowing many banks to reduce their dependence on more volatile wholesale funding (chart 15). And, although loan balances have increased in recent months, they remain well below their peak levels, leaving banks with substantial liquidity. Measures of credit stress such as reductions in nonperforming assets, delinquencies, and charge-off rates show steady improvement in credit quality.

As a result, most banks are now actively seeking loan growth to improve their profitability. In fact, competition for loans, along with an improving outlook for the economy, has caused lenders to ease their standards from the stringent ones applied during the recession. In the area of business lending, the Federal Reserve's latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) (chart 16) and the Survey of Terms of Business Lending (chart 17) indicate improving conditions for corporate borrowers.¹ To a lesser extent, but still showing some easing, are standards for small business and commercial real estate loans.

In the household sector, I believe that high profile problems in the mortgage market may have distracted attention from a noticeable improvement in some measures of the household debt burden. The total debt owed by households as a share of their income, which was rising through 2007, has been falling since then (chart 18). In addition, the ratio of household debt payments to income has dropped precipitously in recent years. In a sign that consumers who still have debt are having less difficulty making their payments, delinquency and charge-off rates on credit card and auto loans have returned to pre-crisis levels (chart 19), and even mortgage delinquency rates have declined somewhat from the extraordinarily high peaks reached in late 2009.

Of course, some of the causes of the declining debt ratios are not the kinds of things you would typically describe as grounds for optimism. In particular, one reason that many households owe less debt today than in recent years is that banks wrote off an unprecedented amount of loans between 2008 and 2011, much of it as a result of foreclosure or bankruptcy. However, although bankruptcies and foreclosures are wrenching events for the households involved, the associated discharge of debt can lay the foundation for a fresh start once income prospects improve.

While unusually high charge-offs tell part of the declining household debt story, a drop-off in new loans--resulting from both tepid loan demand and tight loan supply--likely played a larger role. Loan demand weakened during the recession as households delayed purchasing houses and consumer goods because of rising unemployment, weak income growth, and the steep declines in household wealth. At the same time, lenders responded to high delinquency rates by tightening credit standards.

Although mortgage credit conditions remain tight, much of the tightening in other consumer credit markets appears to be unwinding. As indicated on the SLOOS, the number of loan officers reporting easing standards for consumer loans now exceeds those reporting tightening standards and the willingness of banks to make consumer installment loans has rebounded (chart 20). Standards for credit cards are still restrictive relative to those that prevailed before the crisis, but this may be a response to legislation that changed the regulations governing credit cards in addition to economic conditions. But, even here, fewer loan officers reported reducing credit card limits and raising credit card interest rates relative to their cost of funds.

I consider the recent signs of new life in the consumer credit markets to be cause for optimism because they suggest that when households do regain confidence in the recovery and are ready to begin spending on consumer goods again, the credit markets will not be as much of a constraint as they were during the recession. Indeed, an upside risk to my forecast is that consumers who postponed spending during the past few years could decide to unexpectedly take the plunge and make those purchases. For example, auto purchases seem to be especially good candidates for surprise as the average age of cars on the road indicates pent-up demand and credit is readily accessible. Moreover, as households gain confidence that job and income prospects are improving, that should provide a further boost to spending and loan demand.

Businesses are in an even better position than households to increase spending as confidence returns. Corporate cash positions are at record highs, and corporate debt is at similarly low levels (chart 21). Although business spending has thus far powered much of the recovery, businesses have still only been spending at a pace sufficient to replace outworn capital and to support increases in capacity that are pretty modest for a business cycle recovery. As businesses become more certain of the durability of the recovery, I expect that they will become more willing to further expand productive capacity, particularly with new business equipment and software.

Of course, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. Monetary accommodation works, in part, by lowering interest rates, increasing equity prices, and bolstering the availability of credit for households and firms. But central banks around the world are finding that the beneficial effects of their monetary policies on financial conditions are being offset, to some extent, as movements in financial markets are increasingly driven by headlines regarding actual, contemplated, or even rumored action by European officials. And the potential fallout from the sovereign debt crisis in Europe remains a serious concern. Although European authorities are taking steps to address the region's fiscal problems and shore up its banking system, there is some risk that financial difficulties in the euro zone could intensify substantially. In such circumstances, the direct hit to U.S. trade associated with a deep recession in Europe could be considerable. Given the significant financial linkages between the United States and Europe, a worsening crisis in Europe would likely lead to additional strains in U.S. financial markets, resulting in yet another blow to the U.S. economy.

Proposals to Support Housing Market Recovery
Back on U.S. shores, I want to focus the remainder of my discussion today on the housing and mortgage markets, which are so important for the economic recovery. As I alluded to earlier, and as I am sure you are all very well aware, housing markets have shown little sign of improvement so far in this recovery. This stands in sharp contrast to the important role that the housing sector has typically played in propelling economic recoveries (chart 22). During a downturn, reduced spending on durable goods--including housing--generates pent-up demand, which in itself helps sow the seeds of recovery. Once the cycle bottoms out, improving economic prospects and diminishing uncertainty usually help unleash this pent-up demand. This upward demand pressure is often augmented by lower interest rates, to which housing demand is typically quite responsive. Moreover, spillovers from increased housing demand--such as wealth effects from higher house prices, purchases of complementary goods such as furniture and appliances, as well as strengthening bank balance sheets--have, in the past, provided a powerful additional impetus to the recovery.

Thus far, however, the housing sector has not contributed to the recovery. In addition to the lack of any meaningful improvement in residential construction, the expansion has also been hindered by the steep descent of house prices. To date, house prices have fallen by nearly one-third from their peak (chart 23), pushing home equity as a share of personal income to its lowest level on record (chart 24) and wiping out $7 trillion of housing equity. Further, this decline in housing wealth--and the associated hit to consumer confidence--has not only been a meaningful and persistent drag on overall consumer spending, it has also been enough to push nearly 12 million homeowners underwater on their mortgages, that is their houses are now worth less than their mortgage balances (chart 25). Without equity in their homes, many households who have suffered hardships such as unemployment or unexpected illness have been unable to resolve mortgage payment problems through refinancing their mortgages or selling their homes. The resulting mortgage delinquencies have ended in all too many cases in foreclosure, dislocation, and personal hardship. Neighborhoods and communities have also suffered profoundly from the onslaught of foreclosures, as the neglect and deterioration that frequently accompany vacant properties makes neighborhoods less desirable places to live and may put further downward pressure on house prices.² 

The problems that led to the mortgage crisis and the potential policy solutions to those problems are numerous and varied. Even though time does not permit a full discussion of them here, I do believe that forceful and effective housing policies have the potential to significantly influence the speed and strength of our economic recovery. The Federal Reserve has already acted to reduce mortgage rates by purchasing longer-term assets, in particular through the purchase of agency mortgage-backed securities. Indeed, low rates combined with falling house prices have contributed to historically high levels of housing affordability (chart 26). At the same time, rents have been rising, which should make homeownership a more attractive option relative to rental housing (chart 27).

Despite this record affordability, home purchase and mortgage refinancing activity remains muted. The failure of home sales to respond to conditions that would otherwise seem favorable to home purchases indicates that there are other factors weighing on demand for owner-occupied homes. High levels of unemployment and weak income prospects are likely precluding many households from purchasing homes. In addition, some potential buyers may be delaying house purchases out of fear of purchasing into a falling market. Weak prices also contribute to the reportedly large number of purchase contracts that are canceled due to appraisals that come in too low to support financing.

Finally, many households are unable to purchase homes because of mortgage credit conditions, which are substantially tighter now than they were prior to the recession. Some of this tightening is appropriate, as mortgage lending standards were lax, at best, in the years before the peak in house prices. However, the extraordinarily tight standards that currently prevail reflect, in part, new obstacles that inhibit lending even to creditworthy borrowers. These tight standards can take many forms, including stricter underwriting, higher fees and interest rates, more stringent documentation requirements, larger required down payments, stricter appraisal standards, and fewer available mortgage products. This tightening in mortgage credit can be seen in the increase in the credit scores associated with newly originated prime and Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage originations (charts 28 and 29), which suggests that borrowers who likely had access to mortgage credit a few years ago are now essentially excluded from the mortgage market.

Tight standards are an obstacle to mortgage refinancing as well. The credit scores on new refinancings have risen in line with the credit scores on home purchase loans. Low or negative home equity presents an additional barrier to refinancing, with perhaps only about half of homeowners who could profitably refinance having the equity and creditworthiness needed to qualify for traditional refinancing. Although government programs have facilitated refinancing for many borrowers, many others have still not benefited from the low levels of interest rates.

Surprisingly, this tightness persists even when guarantees from the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) or the FHA are available to shield lenders from credit risk. Estimates by Federal Reserve staff suggest that less than half of lenders currently offer purchase mortgages to borrowers whose credit metrics fall into the lower range of GSE purchase parameters (chart 30). Lenders reportedly attribute this hesitancy to concerns about the high cost of servicing in the event of loan delinquency, and to fears that the GSEs could force lenders to repurchase loans if the borrower defaults. Although this ability of the GSEs to "put back" loans to lenders helps protect the taxpayers from losses, an open question is whether the costs of the associated contraction in credit availability outweigh the benefits of risk mitigation.

At the same time that housing demand has weakened, the number of homes for sale is elevated relative to historical norms, due in large part to the swollen inventory of homes held by banks, guarantors, and servicers after completion of foreclosure proceedings.³These properties are known as real estate owned, or REO, properties. Furthermore, sales by REO owners are often characterized as distressed sales because the regulatory and contractual constraints they face affect their options and incentives for disposing of the properties and may affect their willingness to improve the properties or to sell them at a discount, which in turn would affect home prices beyond the increase in overall supply.

Since 2008, distressed sales have consistently accounted for one-third or more of existing home sales, compared with only a small fraction of sales in preceding decades (chart 31). In addition to increasing the supply of homes for sale, these distressed sales may have an effect on all house prices in a given area if appraisers do not adjust for the differences between distressed and nondistressed sales. And as these discounted transactions go on the books, they can effectively contribute to tighter credit conditions both because they might lower mortgage appraisals for nearby nondistressed properties and because mortgage lenders are motivated to offer tighter credit terms in declining markets. Taken together, these mechanisms create a negative feedback loop between prices, credit terms, and inventories of distressed property in falling markets that may cause prices to overshoot their underlying values.

Given the severity of problems with supply and demand in the housing market, it is unlikely that any single policy solution will provide the full answer, but a number of different policies each have the potential to yield incremental improvement in housing and economic recovery. In the long term, policymakers will need to decide the future role, if any, that the government will play in housing finance. And they will need to decide how to best wean the GSEs away from government conservatorship. In the short term, however, I believe policymakers should at least consider policies that take into account the role the GSEs could play in hastening the healing of the housing market rather than focusing entirely on minimizing losses to the GSEs. In the end, breaking the current logjam created by large numbers of loans severely past due or in foreclosure and high levels of distressed sales should help reduce losses to the GSEs by breaking the downward cycle in prices. And, I think it is plausible that a faster recovery in the housing markets could speed, rather than slow, the end of GSE conservatorship.

In recent months, a group of staff at the Federal Reserve has been studying ways in which the housing market is hindering the economic recovery and possible remedies for those difficulties. This week we published a white paper that discusses issues and trade-offs to consider in developing policies that would facilitate recovery in the housing market. It contains discussions of a number of policies that I believe, if implemented effectively, could result in better economic performance.⁴ 

For example, policies that increase credit availability for homeowners or investors seeking to purchase a home or to refinance an existing mortgage would allow more borrowers to access lower interest rates and thus improve the transmission of monetary policy to the economy. Renewed attention to a broad menu of options to modify existing mortgages would provide aid to struggling homeowners and would help to reduce the flow of foreclosed homes into distressed inventory. When foreclosure cannot be avoided, incentives provided to homeowners that encourage short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure can reduce the time and costs of foreclosure and minimize negative effects on communities.

In addition, expanding the options available for holders of foreclosed properties to dispose of their inventory responsibly could reduce the number of distressed sales and the effect of those sales on home prices. For example, in many housing markets the demand for rental housing is much stronger relative to supply than in the market for owner-occupied homes. Reducing some of the barriers to converting foreclosed properties to rental units will help to redeploy the existing stock of houses in a more efficient way. Along the same lines, aggressive neighborhood stabilization efforts, including transferring low-value properties to public or nonprofit entities, such as land banks, that can manage properties that are not dealt with adequately through the private market, could lessen the effect of foreclosures on the prices of homes in the surrounding neighborhoods.

Finally, the housing crisis highlighted the destructive power of weak underwriting, inadequate disclosure, conflicting incentives, incomplete data, and uneven infrastructure. Any long-term solution must address all of these issues through regulation, standardization of contracts, and effective use of technology. Private investors are not likely to return to mortgage markets until there are common standards as well as consistency and transparency in both mortgage securitization and mortgage servicing. A modern national lien registry that clearly identifies the current servicer of a mortgage and all the liens that encumber the property could increase transparency, improve the quality of mortgage servicing, and facilitate loan modifications.

As I noted earlier, I believe that continued weakness in the housing market poses a significant barrier to a more vigorous economic recovery. Although there is no miracle cure here, these actions have the potential to help the economy recuperate more quickly than I currently expect it to, moving us closer to full employment sooner and improving the lives of many Americans.

Conclusion
To sum up, I expect continued moderate recovery in 2012. My forecast is for the unemployment rate to gradually (and perhaps fitfully) move lower and for inflation to settle over coming quarters at or below levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. In this environment, I believe that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate. However, the economic situation remains very uncertain, and I see considerable risks, on both the downside and the upside, to the forecast I've laid out here. While potential spillover from the situation in Europe certainly represents a downside risk to this forecast, I also believe that the steadily improving consumer debt picture represents an upside risk. And any acceleration in the repair of housing and mortgage markets could add even stronger momentum to recovery. As always, the FOMC will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information, and we are prepared to employ our tools as appropriate to foster economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Greece blinking Will Italy or Spain barge doors first..?

Indian Service sector rebounds and roars

India's services sector grew at its fastest pace in five months in December riding on a surge in new business and expansion in employment.

However, there is also a negative aspect as rising input prices will likely add to inflationary pressures in the coming months, a survey showed.

The HSBC Markit Business Activity Index -- based on a survey of around 400 firms -- rose to 54.2 in December from 53.2 in November, staying above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the second month in a row.

The index had contracted to levels below 50 in September and sunk to a two-and-a-half year low of 49.1 in October.

In the December survey, the new business sub-index jumped to 55.7 from 52.3 in November, thanks to an improvement in demand.

Activity in the services sector picked up pace in December led by faster growth in new business, underscoring the resilience of the sector, said Leif Eskesen, economist at HSBC.

Both the services PMI index (Purchasing Managers Index) and the new business sub-index were at their highest levels since July.

The employment index, which expanded for the first time in six months, also added to the positive mood of December's survey.

Optimism over future business prospects remained strong and improved slightly in December from a near three-year low in November.

While the services sector is certainly headed into 2012 on an upswing, the headline PMI index is still a far cry from 2011's peak of 60.1 it hit in February.

Persistant risks of inflation clubbed with the lingering euro zone crisis is likely to continue to mire the Indian economy in 2012.

India's services sector includes the software services industry which gets more than 90 percent of its revenue from overseas clients.

Two weeks ago, technology bellwether Oracle Corp posted its first quarterly earnings miss in a decade, sending renewed fears of a slowdown in technology spending rippling across the globe.

Oracle's shocking results also had investors worried that they had overestimated the resilience of corporate technology spending in a fragile global economic environment.

In reaction to that news, shares of Indian technology services stalwarts, including those of Infosys Ltd and Tata Consultancy Services, fell.

Inflationary pressures in the Indian economy, which have been snaking upwards over the past two months, intensified in December with input prices growing at their fastest rate in nine months.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which has been consistently raising its key interest rates to battle inflation, kept rates on hold at its Dec. 16 meeting as concerns over growth are seen taking precedence over inflation in 2012.

An interest rate cut by the central bank might be on the cards as the RBI Governor, Duvvuri Subbarao, told BBC in an interview on Monday that a reversal of monetary tightening could be expected.

However, HSBC's Eskesen said the services and manufacturing PMI numbers suggest that it is premature for the RBI to replace inflation with growth as the main concern.

A similar survey of the manufacturing sector on Monday showed India's manufacturing activity hit a six-month high in December as factory output and new orders from domestic and international firms spiked.

Reliance Industries foray into Infotel and TV 19, ETV

RIL PRESS RELEASE

Mumbai,

3rd January 2012:

RIL today announced that a part of the interest owned by it in

the ETV Channels is being divested to TV18 Broadcast Limited (TV18). As a part of the

deal, Infotel Broad Band Services Limited (“Infotel”), a subsidiary of RIL, has entered into a

Memorandum of Understanding with TV18 and Network18 Media and Investments Limited

(Network18) for preferential access to all their content for distribution through the 4G

Broadband Network being set up by it.

As per the Memorandum of Understanding, Infotel shall have preferential access to (i) the

content of all the media and web properties of Network 18 and its associates and (ii)

programming and digital content of all the broadcasting channels of TV18 and its

associates on a first right basis as a most preferred customer.

Infotel is setting up a pan India world class 4

th Generation Broadband Network using state

of the art technologies. Infotel expects to take a leadership position in content distribution

through broadband technology through a host of devices. Digital content from

entertainment, news, sports, music, weather, education and other genres will be a key

driver to increase consumption of broadband.

RIL, through investments of about Rs.2600 crores, by its group companies, currently holds

interest in various ETV Channels being operated and managed by Eenadu Group viz. (i)

100% economic interest in regional news channels, namely ETV Uttar Pradesh, ETV

Madhya Pradesh, ETV Rajasthan, ETV Bihar and ETV Urdu channel (“News Channels”) (ii)

100% economic interest in ETV Marathi, ETV Kannada, ETV Bangla, ETV Gujarati and

ETV Oriya (“Entertainment Channels”) and (iii) 49% economic interest in ETV Telugu and

ETV Telugu News (“Telugu Channels”).