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Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts

Friday, August 17, 2012

Will Equities continue the March to year end

The Equities have been out performing the other markets in last 3 months and have taken many aback. The Left outs have been sort of blaming on ' Liquidity Tap' in US and European Banks and faulting markets for playing this ' CLiff Hanger'.
While, Commodities and particularly Oil has fully recovered the ' Paralysis ' Much faster than thought by any one. Gold and Silver not falling in sympathy, While ' Equities' running ' blind Fold' action. The USD still remains a suspect. And, lastly bonds in US and Europe are ' dead wood'
Indian markets struggling from the brink and remains as suspect.

Will this ' contrariness ' sustain itself..? Many think Yes and more think and lurk on the background to enter.
However, the discipline investor should wait for the last episode of this Play and keep waiting for the next day till .. Markets scale a new peak. Markets are going up for end of ' selling ' season in June and likely to test the virtue of being patient But, the upcoming FOMC meeting shall be the end of the ' Game of Waiting' and shall be the decider. 

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Stock Sweetness and bitter pill



The Equity markets world over sprung after long long time, looking past European Crisis and China's slowdown and carrying the US growth prospects in both Hands. Markets like an efficient animal smell the growth and like a bad engineer spoil it with huge Margin in the downside and Upside. The swings are really breath taking and wild.


Unlike, in 70s to early this century commodities hardly tracked and coyed the equities. But, with the continuous Money injections and abetting by the US FED the co relation seems to be getting entrenched and creating trading pattern. The Equity-commodity unison seems to be obvious and reasonable and most importantly acting as proxies for various currencies like Canadian $, US $, Euro and lately developing world and special reference to Asian Currencies. The Cocktail tastes good and healthy now, and it seems the indicators have started showing divergences and likely to break sooner than ever. The Early indicator seems to be Gold..


Next question lies Who will loose and break the tempo and momentum...?


Friday, January 20, 2012

Indian Government cashes on Gold Rush

The Phenomenal rise in Gold Price and its entry as a Investment Vehicle in the Last decade attracted many towards the precious metal. The Gold ETF's across the India became flavour and favour. Inspite, this rise the Indian Gold demand remain inelastic and more so Price Inefficient. In Mid 60s till mid 90s Gold remained as the Smuggler's Favourite and M/s Hajji Mastan and Co made a Huge moral victory by smuggling gold over drugs.
Mr Yashwant Sinha then finance Minister lowered the custom duty on Gold. 2001-2002:"In order to discourage smuggling I propose to reduce the duty on gold from Rs 400 per 10 grams to Rs 250 per 10 grams."- Yashwant Sinha.
Well, then Gold was trading at much Lower Price @ $ 300 per Ounce and RS 6000 about in Indian Currency .



The Call of Duty
In a bid to match the import duty with rising prices, the government trebled the customs duty on import of gold by increasing the duty twice by Rs. 100 each time, during the Fiscal Year 2009-10.

On 17th January 2012 the government again changed the import duty and it has been set at 2% of value from the earlier import duty of flat Rs 300 per 10 grams. This means, at current price of Rs. 27,700 (rounded-off current gold price) for 10 grams of gold, while you used to pay Rs. 300 as customs duty, it will now increase to Rs.560 (approximately) per 10 grams. In other words, customs duty which amounted to 1.08% at current prices has increased to 2% of value; nearly double of the tariff.

What made the government raise the import duty on gold again? Here are a few probable reasons...

One, India is the world's largest consumer of gold and most of the gold demand is satisfied through imports. As consumption of gold increased, the value of gold imports also saw a rise. We know that higher imports require higher foreign exchange to pay for the import bill, causing a strain on the country's trade balances. Higher imports and rising gold prices worsened the rising trade deficit issue. As per December 2011 data, gold and silver imports grew at 53.8% to $45.5 billion.

Is Gold an Investment for Indians..?
Traditionally, Yes and quite wisely Gold is called Woman's Wealth ( Stree Dhan ). Its exchangeable and posses highest liquidity otherwise remains static in Value. Surely, No one has ever called it as trader's paradise.  

Does it make economic sense..
I think Gold at this price of Rs 27000/ looks tad costly but at Rs 20000 sure is a Buy.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Gold : What lies in Store..? Value Unrevealing


Gold has been one of the most favorite investment option for an Indian as we are the largest consumer of Gold in the world. Besides the traditional options like purchasing  jewelry or investing in gold bars and coins, there are a plethora of new options available like the National Spot Exchange, Gold ETFs and also Gold Fund of Funds. Now, whether we purchase Gold through the physical option way or through mutual funds, it is of paramount importance to first assess what are the drivers of the price of Gold and how to value it. This article tries to examine and answer these important questions.
Investments are very difficult for most of us to theoretically understand, practically apply and emotionally stick to as to what asset allocation should we follow (stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities etc) or what time frame to adhere to and what are the risks attached to it. But there is one thing which most of us, particularly Indians, love and also believe that they understand  – it is Gold. A common person may not understand the benefits of investing in stocks for long term wealth creation or bonds to enhance the purchasing power in a deflationary environment or hoard cash to preserve capital in an uncertain economic world but the same person might easily understand and believe that he / she knows the value of Gold. And we Indians have traditionally been the largest consumers of Gold. Let us understand how to value Gold and if we cant value it then how is the value of Gold determined. And let us understand whether Gold prices can also fall or it is some sacred investments which can never go down.
The value of any asset is the cash flows which is produces during its lifetime and then discounted to present value. Different assets produce different types of cash flows. For example, a bond (fixed deposit) gives interest, equities give dividends, house gives rent etc. But, what cash flow does Gold give – probably nothing. Most assets have some use like steel is used in construction and auto industry, oil in running autos and factories, power in running machines, copper in making wires etc but what is the industrial use of Gold. Besides making “golden tooth”, the industrial use of Gold is practically nothing. Then what is the value of Gold – why is it so costly. Its simply because we believe that the value of Gold will go up in future and we will be able to sell it in future at a higher price to another buyer (the greater fool theory) or more better we don’t ever need to sell Gold – it will be passed on to our children and the future generation. Actually speaking, Gold is a totally speculative commodity with negligible real use and whose value is because of it being treated as a safe heaven – as an alternate currency. Its value is high because governments and Central Banks (led by the US Fed) are running their money printing machines continuously, relentlessly and at a brisk speed. The US Dollar has lost 97% of its value against Gold over the past 38 years! Hence, its not Gold which has gone up but it’s the US Dollar which has gone down because of the indiscriminate money printing by the US Fed. And since, internationally Gold is valued in US Dollar terms, if the value of US Dollar goes down then naturally the value of Gold has to go up. In an effort to illuminate a different aspect of the gold story that somebody might have probably not seen, let’s focus on other currencies. When we compare it with six other major currencies, there’s a huge disparity between the US dollar’s loss of gold-purchasing power (more than 450%), and the Swiss Franc’s loss of gold purchasing power (less than 200%). 
Now, has Gold risen consistently over the past few decades. No, not at all. International Gold prices crashed from US$850 per ounce in 1981 to US$250 per ounce in 2001, negative return over a long 20-year period. However, the “rupee value” of Gold was up during the same period – because the Indian Rupee which was Rs.8 per US Dollar in the year 1981 crashed to Rs.45 by the year 2001. Since the Indian currency lost significant value against the US Dollar, Indian Gold prices in rupee terms went up while actual international Gold prices in US Dollar crashed during the same period. And has Gold given great returns over a long term 20-year period. No. Indian Gold prices are up by 8.9% CAGR over the last 20-years while the BSE Sensex has given returns of 15.3% CAGR over the same period. Infact, over the past 20-years Bank FD might have given better returns than Gold. 
Lot of the so called financial experts will educate you that Gold is a hedge against inflation. However, that may not necessarily be the case. Its not directly related to inflation but to “real interest rates” of US Dollar denominated assets like US Treasuries. When the real interest rate is down and close to inflation – Gold is likely to appreciate in value because to hold Gold (which does not give any cash flow), the investor has to forego interest on his / her investments and hence real interest rates have to be low or negative so as to induce the investor to hold onto something which does not give any real cash flow. Exhibit II brings out the last 30-year history of US real interest rates, gold prices and US stock markets. It clearly brings out the fact that Gold performs well when real interest rates are very low to negative and vice versa.
Exhibit II: The Time when Gold rises in Value
PeriodUS Real Interest Rate Gold Price US S&P 500*
1973-80-1.15%32% p.a.-7% p.a.
1981-20012.70%-3.5%p.a.7% p.a.
2002-11-0.4%18.5% p.a.-3% p.a.





Source: US Federal Reserve, * Excluding Dividends
To sum up, the following factors determine the value of Indian Gold:
1) Value of the US Dollar: Since Gold is internationally quoted in US Dollar, the weaker the US Dollar, the higher the price of Gold and vice versa.
2) Real Interest Rates in US Dollar denominated assets: Low or negative real interest rates result in higher Gold prices and vice versa.
3) Indian rupee vis-a-vis US Dollar: Since, Indians buy Gold in Indian rupees, the weaker the Indian rupees against the US Dollar, the higher will be the price of Gold and vice versa.
Future prices of GoldTill the US Fed continues to print money the US Dollar will remain weak, till there is uncertainty in the global economy the money printing will continue, till the US Dollar remains weak some shift from Asian Central Banks like China, India etc will happen from US Dollar denominated securities to hard asset like Gold, till there is uncertainty around people will move to the so called safe heaven of Gold, till the Indian rupee remains structurally weak against the US Dollar over the long term, Indian Gold prices would be supported in rupee terms and till the woman in India keep loving Gold ornaments there would be demand for Gold which otherwise hardly has any real industrial use. So, the next time you invest in Gold, weigh all these factors before doing it – and remember that Gold may go up in value like any other asset – but it is certainly not a sacred asset that its value will never come down – like any other asset its value will go up and also come down depending on the conditions which affect its prices. And if I have to compulsorily predict Indian Gold prices, then I feel that international Gold prices might almost double over the next few years from around US$1700 per ounce currently to US$3500 per ounce while the Indian Gold prices might under perform with increase from current Rs.2900 per gram to around Rs.5000 per gram over the next few years after which Gold might enter a prolonged and long term bear market.

Friday, November 25, 2011

Indian Mine productions falls by 4.86 %


Ministry of Mines25-November, 2011 10:40 IST
Mineral Production during September 2011
The index of mineral production of mining and quarrying sector in September 2011 was lower by 4.86% compared to that of the preceding month. The mineral sector has shown a negative growth of 5.64% during September 2011 as compared to that of the corresponding month of previous year.

The total value of mineral production (excluding atomic & minor minerals) in the country during September 2011 was Rs.13658 crore. The contribution of petroleum (crude) was the highest at Rs. 5626 crore (41%). Next in the order of importance were: coal Rs 2800 crore, iron ore Rs.2490 crore, natural gas (utilized) Rs. 1452 crore, lignite Rs. 311 crore and limestone Rs. 267 crore. These six minerals together contributed about 95% of the total value of mineral production in September 2011.

Production level of important minerals in September 2011 were: coal 299 lakh tonnes, lignite 26 lakh tonnes, natural gas (utilized) 3879 million cu. m., petroleum (crude) 31 lakh tonnes, bauxite 995 thousand tonnes, chromite 258 thousand tonnes, copper conc. 11 thousand tonnes, gold 172 kg., iron ore 126 lakh tonnes, lead conc. 13 thousand tonnes, manganese ore 196 thousand tonnes, zinc conc. 114 thousand tonnes, apatite & phosphorite 185 thousand tonnes, dolomite 412 thousand tonnes, limestone 188 lakh tonnes, magnesite 18 thousand tonnes and diamond 2061 carat.

In September 2011 the output of apatite & phosphorite increased by 28.44%, diamond 19.27%, manganese ore 16.82%, bauxite 8.88%, chromite 8.05%, copper conc. 5.34%, magnesite 5.16 percent. However the production of lignite decreased by 2.61%, natural gas (utilized) 2.85%, dolomite 3.13%, limestone 3.27%, petroleum (crude) 4.00%, coal 8.59%, iron ore 8.77%, gold 8.99%, lead conc. 9.36% and zinc conc. 9.36 percent. 

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

IMF Says Germany Sold Gold in October


Germany has lowered its gold reserves for the first time in almost a year, selling 150,000 troy ounces in October while central banks of developing economies continued to beef up their bullion holdings in a bid to diversify their foreign reserves.
Bundesbank, the central bank of Germany, reduced its reserves to 109.194 million ounces in October, from 109.344 million ounces in September, according to International Monetary Fund data seen by Dow Jones Newswires.
A spokesman for Bundesbank confirmed 150,000 ounces of gold had been sold to the Ministry of Finance to mint commemorative coins

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

India Trade Gap Widens to $ 20 Billions : Gold major Import


Ministry of Commerce & Industry08-November, 2011 16:30 IST
Export Grows 10.8% in October at US $ 19.9 Billion: Commerce Secretary
India’s exports have registered a growth of 10.8% during October 2011, at US $ 19.9 billion. Imports in October 2011 stood at 39.5 Billion US$ registering a growth of 21.7%. Balance of Trade for the period was (-) 19.6 Billion US$. Cumulative Export figures for the period of April to October 2011 stood at 179.8 Billion US$ registering a growth of 46%. Imports for the same period stood at 273.5 Billion US$ registering a growth of 31%. Balance of trade for the period stood at (-) 93.7 Billion US$.

During April-October 2011, the following sectors have done well viz., engineering, (US $ 51.4 billion) which registered the growth of 89.6 % over the last year.; petroleum & oil products, 51% (US $ 31.9 billion); Cotton 22% (US $ 3.99 billion) ; electronics, 50% (US $ 6.4 billion); Readymade garments, 31% ( US $ 7.7 billion).

As regards to imports during April-October 2011, the growth estimates on the following sectors are: POL, 41% (US $ 81.9 billion); Gold and silver 64% (US $ 38.3 billion),; machinery, 27.8% (US $ 20 billion), electronics, 22% (US & 19.7 billion).

Dr Khullar informed that these figures are provisional and are likely to change. 

Monday, September 19, 2011

Obama Tax, falling Market's, Greek Desperation


















































Greek's Conference marathon to continue : Desperation, palpable 


Greece's conference call with the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank could last until Tuesday or later, according to published reports. Markets around the world have been in turmoil during recent days over the possibility of a Greek default. Monday's conference call came after Greece Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos promised to hurry budget reforms and make cuts to the nation's civil-service staff. 

Dollar Libor at the yearly High :


The cost to borrow money in dollars remained at the highest level in more than a year on Monday while the rate to borrow euros was little changed. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month dollar loans traded at 0.35133%, little changed from Friday and up from 0.34289% a week ago, according to FactSet Research. The three-month Libor rate for euros was little changed at 1.48375%, near the highest since early 2009. The one-week Libor rate for euros was 1.05063%, also unchanged from Friday and down from higher levels seen in early August.


Gold Sinks with all metals and Commodities :


 Gold futures fell 2% Monday to close at their lowest level in more than three weeks, pressured by broad losses in the U.S. stock market and commodities, as a stronger U.S. dollar dulled demand for the metal. Gold for December delivery fell $35.80 to close at $1,778.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest closing level for futures prices since Aug. 25. Given how long the European debt crisis has been going on, it's no surprise that gold's failing to get a lift from the Greek debt concerns and right now, the movement in gold is really focused on the stronger U.S. dollar, said Jeffrey Wright, senior analyst of metals and mining equity research at Global Hunter Securities.

Obama's tax adventure :



 In a blunt rejoinder to congressional Republicans, President Barack Obama called for $1.5 trillion in new taxes Monday, part of a total 10-year deficit reduction package totaling more than $3 trillion. He vowed to veto any deficit reduction package that cuts benefits to Medicare recipients but does not raise taxes on the wealthy and big corporations.
"We can't just cut our way out of this hole," the president said.
The president's proposal would predominantly hit upper income taxpayers but would also reduce spending in mandatory benefit programs, including Medicare and Medicaid, by $580 billion. It also counts savings of $1 trillion over 10 years from the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.
The deficit reduction plan represents an economic bookend to the $447 billion in tax cuts and new public works spending that Obama has proposed as a short-term measure to stimulate the economy and create jobs. And it gives the president a voice in a process that will be dominated by a joint congressional committee charged with recommending deficit reductions of up to $1.5 trillion.
His plan served as a sharp counterpoint to Republican lawmakers, who have insisted that tax increases should play no part in taming the nation's escalating national debt. Obama's plan would end Bush-era tax cuts for top earners and would limit their deductions.
"It's only right we ask everyone to pay their fair share," Obama said from the Rose Garden at the White House.
In issuing his threat to veto any Medicare benefits that aren't paired with tax increases on upper-income people, Obama said: "I will not support any plan that puts all the burden for closing our deficit on ordinary Americans."
Responding to a complaint from Republicans about his proposed tax on the wealthy, Obama added: "This is not class warfare. It's math."
The Republican reaction was swift and derisive.
"Veto threats, a massive tax hike, phantom savings, and punting on entitlement reform is not a recipe for economic or job growth_or even meaningful deficit reduction," Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement issued minutes after the president's announcement. "The good news is that the Joint Committee is taking this issue far more seriously than the White House."
Obama's proposal comes amid Democratic demands that Obama take a tougher stance against Republicans. And while the plan stands little chance of passing Congress, its populist pitch is one that the White House believes the public can support.
The core of the president's plan totals just over $2 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years. It would let Bush-era tax cuts for upper income earners expire, limit deductions for wealthier filers and close loopholes and end some corporate tax breaks. It also would cut $580 billion from mandatory programs, including $248 billion from Medicare. It also targets subsidies to farmers and benefits programs for federal employees.
Officials cast Obama's plan as his vision for deficit reduction, and distinguished it from the negotiations he had with House Speaker John Boehner in July as Obama sought to avoid a government default.
As a result, Obama's proposal includes no changes in Social Security and no increase in the Medicare eligibility age, which the president had been willing to accept this summer.
Administration officials also said that Obama's $1.5 trillion in new taxes is a goal that Congress could achieve through a broad overhaul of the tax code. They said the president's specific proposals represent one way to get to that goal under the existing tax code.
Coupled with about $1 trillion in cuts already approved by Congress and signed by the president, overall deficit reduction would total more than $4 trillion, a number many economists cite as a minimum threshold to bring the nation's debt under control.
Key features of Obama's plan:
—$1.5 trillion in new revenue, which would include about $800 billion realized over 10 years from repealing the Bush-era tax rates for couples making more than $250,000. It also would place limits on deductions for wealthy filers and end certain corporate loopholes and subsidies for oil and gas companies.
—$580 billion in cuts in mandatory benefit programs, including $248 billion in Medicare and $72 billion in Medicaid and other health programs. Other mandatory benefit programs include farm subsidies and federal employee benefits. Administration officials said 90 percent of the $248 billion in 10-year Medicare cuts would be squeezed from service providers. The plan does shift some additional costs to beneficiaries, but those changes would not start until 2017.
—$430 billion in savings from lower interest payment on the national debt.
— $1 trillion in savings from drawing down military forces from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Republicans have ridiculed the war savings as gimmicky, but House Republicans included them in their budget proposal this year and Boehner had agreed to count them as savings during debt ceiling negotiations with the president this summer.
Illustrating Obama's populist pitch on tax revenue, he suggested that Congress establish a minimum tax on taxpayers making $1 million or more in income. The measure — the White House calls it the "Buffett Rule" for billionaire investor Warren Buffett — is designed to prevent millionaires from taking advantage of lower tax rates on investment earnings than what middle-income taxpayers pay on their wages.
That minimum rate, however, is not included in the White House revenue projections. Officials said it was a suggestion for Congress if it were to undertake an overhaul of the tax code.
.At issue is the difference between a taxpayer's tax bracket and the effective tax rate that taxpayer pays. Millionaires face a 35 percent tax bracket, while middle income filers fall in the 15 or 25 percent bracket. But investment income is taxed at 15 percent and Buffett has complained that he and other wealthy people have been "coddled long enough" and shouldn't be paying a smaller share of their income in federal taxes than middle-class taxpayers.
Associated Press

CRISIL Report September 2011, Investor Input

Crisil fundamental september 2011
View more documents from Atul Baride
The Report explains the various Investing avenues and performances. The GOLD Exchange Traded Fund is the Focus of the month. 
The Mutual Fund Houses kept Banks, Software and Pharma as Most Favored Sectors.
Many Infrastructural Companies have been exited.

Saturday, July 30, 2011

US Debt is Gold Standard ...? Asks Neel Kashkari.


 ( PIMCO, the biggest Debt fund Managing company, has many ' super Brains'  one of its catch is Neel Kashkeri, son of Indian Kashmiri Immigrants to US.    The Blue eyed Boy, profile on P.I.M.C.O: (Mr. Kashkari is a managing director and head of new investment initiatives in the Newport Beach office. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2009, Mr. Kashkari served in the U.S. Treasury Department from 2006-2009, first as senior advisor to Secretary Henry Paulson and then as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. In the latter role, he established and led the Office of Financial Stability and oversaw the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Before joining the Treasury Department, Mr. Kashkari was a vice president at Goldman Sachs in San Francisco, advising technology companies on financings and mergers and acquisitions. Previously, he was an aerospace engineer at TRW Corporation. He holds both bachelor's and master's degrees in engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania)
Neel, has raised the basic question, Whether value lies in the Hands of Beholder..?
Surely, Gold is Gold, because all call it Gold and are ready to pay for it. 
The removal Gold Standard in 1972.
When President Nixon, removed Gold standard and Forced $ in.1972 .  World was put to test, by explosion in Crude prices, The $ became entrenched in international trade, as a corridor and US Bonds the prize.  The International development heaved on Crude, which remained undervalued through out 80-90's. The 'Camp David',  agreement in 1979, between Israel and Egypt cemented the ' Crude' revolt. Simultaneously, the OIL Producing nation were galvanized under the umbrella of O.P.E.C.and Monarchy's were set up in Egypt, Syria, Libya, Iraq.to counter the threat of Khomeni in Iran and also as Allies against USSR. NOW the whole Edifice is crumbling across the Middle East and Libya. The recent OPEC meeting showed the deep fissures, and soon OPEC may will have its count.
 Does all this politics have further bearing on 'Fall Of $' and vis a vis.?

Could a U.S. debt downgrade trigger a financial crisis?


We approach Treasury’s debt-ceiling deadline, attention has shifted from the risks of a default on Treasury debt to the risk of a downgrade of U.S. credit. Many are asking whether a downgrade could itself lead to a financial crisis. With the example of 2008 still fresh in many minds, the question has become: Would it be as bad as the Lehman Bros. bankruptcy?
Some market observers speculate that a downgrade would be a non-event: Japan, for example, went from a rating of AAA to AA without much drama. Others suggest that a downgrade would increase Treasury’s borrowing costs by $100 billion a year or more, making our already unsustainable deficit trajectory even worse.
There are no rules to define what is systemic and what isn’t — or to accurately predict the consequences of an economic shock. Each crisis is unique. How exactly it will affect financial markets, companies and our economy is impossible to know. Nonetheless, recent examples offer guidance.
In 2008, a number of once-cherished beliefs were turned upside down: (1) that home prices in America would never fall; (2) that AAA-rated subprime securities are sound; (3) that a major investment bank would never fail. Consumers, investors and companies allocated capital according to these truths. When the beliefs were revealed to be false, massive shocks were inflicted on the economy as financial markets rapidly adjusted to account for these new risks.
Banks had to reduce their leverage and rein in lending. Companies froze investment. Consumers cut spending and started saving. As a result, the economy plunged into recession, and millions of jobs were lost.Unemployment shot to 10 percent.
The question now is whether U.S. Treasury bonds, which anchor the global economy, really are the gold standard, the risk-free financial instruments they have been trusted to be. What will happen if that truth is revealed to be false?
Four factors in particular can help assess the magnitude of the financial impact from an undermined truth:
(1) How strongly is the belief held?
In 2008, investors around the world generally believed that major U.S. investment banks were so large they would never be allowed to fail. In the six months leading up to Lehman’s bankruptcy, however, it came under increased funding pressure and its stock price slowly collapsed. Markets were not completely convinced that the government would have the will or the ability to save Lehman; otherwise investors would have continued lending to it, as they did to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which had no trouble borrowing money before they were rescued only days ahead of the Lehman bankruptcy.
By comparison, U.S. Treasurys have been defined for decades as the risk-free financial instrument throughout global financial markets. Faith in Treasurys is far stronger than it ever was in Lehman Bros. This suggests a far bigger shock than Lehman if this truth is proven false.
(2) How big an asset class does the belief support?
U.S. Treasurys are a $14 trillion market — the single biggest security market in the global economy. In comparison, Lehman had approximately $600 billion of liabilities before it failed, less than 5 percent of the size of the Treasury market. Treasurys are held by virtually all 8,000 banks in America and nearly all insurance companies, corporations, pension plans and millions of individuals’ 401(k)s. This scale suggests a far larger shock than Lehman.
(3) How wrong was the belief?
Here, Treasurys are not as bad as Lehman. Even if the U.S. credit rating is downgraded, almost no one believes we will actually default on our debt. The United States is not entering bankruptcy, and its debt is not junk. Lehman debt ultimately proved to be worth a fraction of its face value. To some, this suggests a U.S. downgrade would produce a more modest shock than Lehman. But a small deviation from a cherished belief can be as shocking as a large deviation from a weaker belief.
(4) What is the economic context in which the shock is taking place?
Although the United States is technically no longer in recession, the U.S. economy is growing slowly. Unemployment remains at 9.2 percent. Europe is awash in its own fiscal crisis, and much of the developed world is struggling. When Lehman collapsed, U.S. unemployment was at 6 percent, but the economy was contracting and housing markets were plummeting. The global economic context in September 2008 was probably worse than today, but our economy remains vulnerable.
These factors suggest that a U.S. downgrade has the potential to be as bad or perhaps worse than the Lehman shock. The more strongly held a belief, and the larger the asset class it supports, the greater the potential damage to the economy when the belief is turned upside down. We may not be certain what will happen if U.S. credit is downgraded, but there is no upside to finding out.
 ( Tip : What is a Gold Standard : The gold standard is a monetary system in which the standard economic unit of account is a fixed mass of gold.-- wikipeadia.
 2) The U.S. used a gold standard from its inception in 1789 until 1971, a stretch of 182 years. In 1965--not that long ago--all major countries in the world participated in the worldwide gold standard system known as the Bretton Woods arrangement.)