India GDP Growth slows to 7.7% Year over Year

Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the First Quarter (April-June) of 2011-12

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1, of 2011-12, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP. 2.         The estimates of Quarterly GDP have been compiled using the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP). The new series of IIP with base 2004-05 was released by CSO on 10th June, 2011.  The new series of IIP is based on a representative item basket comprising of 682 individual items and a weighting diagram which better reflects the present structure and composition of the industry due to changes in the technology, economic reforms and production behaviour over time. A comparative table showing growth rates of IIP in the new series and the old series for Q1 of 2009-10 to 2011-12 is given below.             Growth Rates of IIP in New and Old series for Q1 (In percentage) Mining Manufacturing Electricity Capital Goods Consumer Goods Old series New series Old series New series Old series New series Old series New series Old series New series 2009-10 6.8 6.2 3.6 -3.7 5.8 6.1 3.5 -16.5 -0.3 -1.6 2010-11 10.2 8.0 12.6 10.3 5.6 5.4 31.9 17.2 9.2 11.5 2011-12 1.0 7.5 8.2 16.8 4.2             Accordingly, Q1 estimates of  GDP for 2009-10 and 2010-11, which were released on 31st May 2011, have been revised on account of using the new series of IIP.  The use of new series of IIP (base 2004-05) has resulted in revisions in mining, manufacturing, electricity and trade, hotels and restaurant sectors in GDP. Estimates of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and valuables, components of expenditure side of GDP have also been revised, accordingly. 3.         The details of estimates of GDP for Q1, 2011-12 are presented below. I           ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (a)        At constant (2004-2005) prices 4.         Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-2005) prices for Q1 of 2011-12 is estimated at ` 12,26,339 crore, as against  `11,38,286 crore in Q1 of 2010-11, showing a growth rate of 7.7 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.   5.         The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q1 of 2011-12 over Q1 of 2010-11 are  ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 7.9 per cent,  ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 12.8 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 9.1 per cent.  The estimated growth rates in other economic activities are: 7.2 per cent in ‘manufacturing’, 5.6 percent in ‘community, social and personal services’, 3.9 percent in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, 1.8 percent in ‘mining & quarrying’ and 1.2 percent in ‘construction’ during this period. 6.         According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q1 of 2011-12,  the production of crops - rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses during  the  Rabi  season  of agriculture year 2010-11 (which ended in June 2011) recorded growth rates of 11.3 per cent, 6.3 per cent, 0.7 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively over the production in the corresponding season of previous agriculture year.   Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds increased by 12.0 per cent during the Rabi season of 2010-11. 7.         According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the new series, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 1.0 per cent, 7.5 per cent and 8.2 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2011-12, as compared to the growth rates of  8.0 per cent, 10.3 per cent and 5.4 per cent in these sectors during Q1 of 2010-11. The estimates of Q1 for 2009-10 and 2010-11 have been revised on account of using new series of IIP. 8.         The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement declined by 0.9% and consumption of finished steel registered growth rate of 1.5 per cent, during Q1 of 2011-12. 9.         Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rates of 6.3 per cent and 6.1 per cent,  respectively during Q1 of 2011-12.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sales of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation, passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 14.1 per cent, 5.2 per cent, 4.9 per cent and 14.6 per cent respectively during Q1 of 2011-12 over Q1 of 2010-11.  The total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth of 34 per cent as against 41 percent in the first quarter of the previous year.  The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 18.7 per cent, and 21.0 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2011-12 over Q1 of 2010-11. (b)       At current prices 10.       GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q1 of 2011-12, is estimated at ` 19,37,123 crore, as against ` 16,59,708 crore in Q1, 2010-11, showing an increase of 16.7 per cent.  11.       The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 9.1 per cent, 20.9 per cent, 7.2 per cent, 0.3 per cent and 9.4 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2011-12, over Q1 of 2010-11. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 8.9 per cent during Q1 of 2011-12 over Q1 of 2010-11. II         ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP 12.       The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices. Private Final Consumption Expenditure 13.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ` 11,97,461 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against `10,29,527 crore in Q1 of 2010-11.  At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ` 7,95,683 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against `7,48,395 crore in Q1 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-2005) prices during Q1 of 2011-12 are estimated at 58.1 per cent and 60.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.7 per cent and 61.7 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2010-11. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 14.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at ` 2,17,483 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against `1,95,413 crore in Q1 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the GFCE is estimated at ` 1,36,935 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against `1,34,161 crore in Q1 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-2005) prices during Q1 of 2011-12 are estimated at 10.5 per cent and 10.4 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 11.1 per cent each in Q1 of 2010-11. Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at ` 5,85,261 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against ` 5,12,457 crore in Q1 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the GFCF is estimated at ` 4,10,533 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against ` 3,80,544 crore in Q1 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-2005) prices during Q1 of 2011-12 are estimated at 28.4 per cent and 31.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.2 per cent and 31.4 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2010-11. 16.       Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q1 of 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 at constant (2004-2005) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 4.