US GDP in Danger Zone..?

The first revision to Q1 GDP printed at 1.0%, down from the preliminary Q2 GDP print of 1.3%, and as expected was worse than Wall Street consensus of -1.1%, although it was certainly not as bad as the miss to the preliminary number. Stone McCarthy's forecast of 0.7% is not necessarily wrong: it is probably just early: the final revision to Q2 GDP will come on September 29, one week after the next FOMC meeting, and will be the last sub 1% GDP growth number before we see a negative GDP print for Q3. Personal Consumption printed a little better than expected at 0.4%, higher than consensus of 0.2%. Alas, this number will be whacked massively in Q3. Core PCE was also slightly higher than expectations of 2.1%, coming at 2.2%. The components of the 1.0% revised GDP were: PCE: 0.3%; Fixed Investment: 1.01%, Change in Private Inventories: -0.23%; Exports: 0.41%; Imports -0.31%; and Government consumption -0.18%. This is the third consecutive quarter in which the government has taken away from growth





And here is Goldman's breakdown:

1. Q2 real GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% (quarter-over-quarter, annualized) in the second estimate, down from 1.3% in the advance report. The revision reflected a reduction in the contribution from inventories to -0.2 percentage points (pp) from +0.2pp previously. Final sales growth-GDP excluding the effects of inventories-was revised up to 1.2% from 1.1% in the advance report. Changes in the components were in line with our expectations. Consumer spending and business fixed investment were revised up, but net exports were revised down. Other components were close to unchanged.