China PMI Falls Below 50 and Europe Stagnates---Markit -HSBC Flash PMI

                              HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI™
Chinese manufacturing production declines at fastest rate since March 2009
• Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 48.9 (50.1 in June). 28-month low.
• Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 (49.8 in June). 28-month low.
Data collected 12–19 July.
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.

Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:
“Headline flash PMI fell below 50 for the first time since July 2010, suggesting slowing momentum of manufacturing activities. This implies that June's rebound in industrial production was just temporary. We expect industrial growth to decelerate in the coming months as tightening measures continue to filter through. That said, resilience of consumer spending and continued investment in a massive amount of infrastructure projects should support a nearly 9% rate of GDP growth in the rest of the year.”
                                          Markit Flash Eurozone PMI
               Eurozone growth slows to near-stagnation in July----- Markit PMI

    Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 50.8 (53.3 in June). 23-month low.
􀂃 Flash Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 51.4 (53.7 in June). 22-month low
􀂃 Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (3) at 50.4 (52.0 in June). 22-month low.
􀂃 Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index(4) at 49.5 (52.5 in June). 2-year low.
                                         Data collected 12-20 July
The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, fell from 53.3 in June to 50.8 in July. The latest reading was the lowest since August 2009 and signalled a near-stagnation of private sector output, the rate of growth having slowed sharply in each of the past three months. The month-on-month fall in the Output Index in July was the largest since November 2008.
 ***Manufacturing output declined – albeit only marginally – for the first time since July 2009, while activity growth slowed sharply in services to the weakest since September 2009.
The deterioration in the survey’s output indicators reflected weaker order book trends. Across both sectors, new business showed only a very marginal increase in July, registering the smallest rise since demand for goods and services first started growing again back in September 2009. Levels of incoming new business fell in manufacturing for the second month in a row, declining at the fastest rate since June 2009 – with new export orders dropping for first time since July 2009. Service sector new business meanwhile showed the weakest rise since November 2009, the rate of growth having lost almost all of the strong momentum seen earlier in the year.

Forward-looking indicators failed to improve. Expectations of service sector activity in the coming year were unchanged compared to June – which had seen the lowest level of optimism since July 2009. At the same time, the ratio of manufacturing new orders to inventories, which acts as a guide to near-term output developments, fell to the lowest since April 2009.
The rate of expansion across both sectors slowed in both Germany and France, dropping especially sharply in the former. Germany saw the weakest rate of growth in two years, while French growth was the slowest since August 2009. Elsewhere, outside of the two largest countries, output fell for the second successive month, and at the steepest rate since August 2009.
Employment growth held up well in the face of the near-stagnation of both output and order books, running below the rate seen earlier in the year but up marginally compared with June. Minor upturns in the rate of job creation were seen in both manufacturing and services, with the former continuing to see the stronger rate of growth. Staffing levels rose in France and Germany, but fell overall across the rest of the region.
Backlogs of work fell for the first time since November 2009. Although only slight, the decline suggests that headcounts may be reduced in coming months unless inflows of new work revive. Manufacturers reported a steeper drop in outstanding work than service providers.
Price pressures eased during the month. Average prices charged for goods and services rose at the weakest rate for six months, while input price inflation across the two sectors dropped to a 12-month low.

Inter-National Data Summary: US, Europe, Asia-Pacific

U.S.

• Housing starts jumped 14.6% over May to an annualized 629,000 units in June, the highest level since January. Housing starts are up 16.7% over last June. The reading was much stronger than the consensus expectation of 575,000, though after May starts were downwardly revised to 549,000 (previously 560,000 units). Multifamily starts surged 31.8% over May to 170,000 units. Single-family starts were up 9.4% to 453,000 units. Building permits, a leading indicator for future construction activity, were up 2.5% to 624,000 in June.
• U.S. existing home sales fell for the third straight month by 0.8% month over month to an annualized 4.77 million units in June, weaker than consensus expectations of an increase to 4.9 million. The 7.0% month-over-month drop in condo/co-op sales to 530,000 units largely explains the overall decline. Single-family sales were flat for the month. Condo/co-op sales are down 18% year over year while single family home sales are down 7.4% year over year. The months' supply of unsold homes rose to 9.5 from 9.1 in May and is still above the six-month historic average. The sales price jumped to $184,300 from $169,300 in May and is up 0.8% over last June.
• The S&P/Experian consumer credit default rates decreased in June to 2.14% from 2.23% in May and 3.44% a year ago. All loan types saw declines.
• Industrial production edged up 0.2% month over month in June, which is the first rise seen in two months, offsetting the 0.1% decline in May (previous 0.1% gain). Auto production remained weak again, down 2.0% in June after dropping 1.5% the month before because of continued Japan-related weakness. Manufacturing capacity utilization remained at its May level of 74.4%, and it is still less than the 80-point benchmark rate.
• Consumer prices (CPI) fell by 0.2% month over month in June, which was a larger drop than the 0.1% decline that the consensus expected, after a 0.2% month-over-month increase was seen in May. Core CPI, excluding food and fuel, was up 0.3% over May, the same rate as in May, though stronger than the 0.2% increase that the consensus expected. On a year-over-year basis, overall CPI is up 3.7%. Core CPI is up 1.6% over last year and is still within the Fed's implicit 1% to 2% comfort zone. Energy prices fell 4.4% month over month but are up 20.1% over last June.
• The New York Fed Empire State index climbed four points to a disappointing negative 3.8 reading in July, partially offsetting the near 20-point drop to negative 7.8 in June, and still less than zero, indicating contraction, for a second time. New orders edged down to negative 5.6 after plummeting to less than zero (negative 3.6) in June. The employment index dropped again in July to 1.1 from its 14-point plunge to 10.2 the month before. The price readings also weakened.
• The initial jobless claims fell 22,000 to 405,000 in the week ended July 9 from an upwardly revised 427,000 the week before (was 418,000). Continuing claims climbed 15,000 to 3.727 million for the week ended July 2, though after the week before was upwardly revised to 3.712 million (previously 3.681 million).
• The U.S. Treasury budget deficit was $43.1 billion in June and narrower than the $68.4 billion deficit seen in June 2010 and the consensus expectation of $65.5 billion. Receipts edged down 0.6% over last June to $249.7 billion, Outlays fell 8.4% year over year to $292.7 billion. The deficit now stands at $970.5 billion for the first nine months of the fiscal year, narrower than the $1.004 trillion deficit for the same period in fiscal year 2010.
• Oil prices increased to $100 per barrel on (Thursday- midday) from $97.37 per barrel the previous week on rising speculation that debt problems on both sides of the Atlantic would be resolved soon and signs that crude stocks and Natural Gas are shrinking in U.S. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data showed a 3.7 million-barrel fall in crude stocks, which was larger than the 1.5 million-barrel drop that markets expected. Total product demand was up 1.6% year over year.
• U.S. bond yields edged down two basis points (bps) to 2.93% on Wednesday (midday), after a disappointing existing home sales report increased worries that the recovery is losing steam. Mortgage rates slipped marginally to 4.54%. Mortgage applications increased to 15.5% during the week ended July 15 following a drop of 5.1% the previous week. The refi index increased by 23.1% from a 6.2% drop the previous week. The purchase index decreased by 0.1% this week, following a decline of 2.6% the previous week.
• The dollar weakened against most trading partners this week as signs of progress on a U.S. budget deal prompted a rise in risk tolerance. The euro rose to $1.422/€ on Wednesday (midday) from $1.404/€. The yen rose to ¥78.77/$ from ¥79.31/$.
• LEI rose by 0.03% Month over Month ( see the separate post giving the Details, Dow trading @12735 and Nasdaq@ 2838, S&P 500 @1345   
• In The Anvil :
  •  S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July 26; negative 4.2). Consumer confidence (July 26; 57.0). New home sales (July 26; 0.31 million). Durable orders (July 27; 0.5). Beige Book for FOMC Meeting (July 27). Initial claims (July 28). Advance second-quarter GDP (July 29; 1.7%). Employment cost index (July 29; 0.6). Chicago ISM (July 29; 60.0). Consumer sentiment (July 29; 64.0).

                                                                            Europe :

• Italy's lower house of parliament approved a EUR48 billion austerity package on July 15, 2011, in record time to calm the increasing contagion fears spreading from the Greek debt crisis. The mix of spending cuts and tax measures is aimed at ensuring the government reaches its target of balancing the budget by 2014.
• The minutes of the July 6 - 7 meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) revealed a more dovish tone, indicating that any rises in interest rates are being put off into the future.
• Germany's ZEW index of economic sentiment slipped for the fifth consecutive month to negative 15.1 in July, its lowest level since January 2009, from negative 9.0 in June. Europe's government debt crisis weighed on optimism despite the continuing strength of the German economy.
• Russian industrial production increased by 5.7% year over year in June. The manufacturing sector, which grew 7.1% year over year during the period, led the growth.
• The eurozone trade deficit declined to EUR0.6 billion from EUR2.5 billion in April. Exports grew 1.5% month over month in May, faster than April's rise of 0.2%. Meanwhile, import growth slowed to 0.2% from 0.8%.
• The eurozone inflation rate remained steady at 2.7% in June but continues to remain at more than the target that the European Central Bank set.
• European Data update is being done separately. Greece Talks are being viewed ... European Markets Closed +ve  cac 3816.25, Dax 7290.14  , FTSE: 5899.89
•  Flash PMI's from Markit tomorrow and 
  •  EMU industrial orders (July 22). Germany Ifo expectations (July 22). France production outlook (July 22). Italy retail sales (July 22). Germany retail sales (July 25). Germany consumer confidence (July 26). U.K. GDP (July 26). Hometrack house prices (July 26). Germany import price index (July 27). CPI (July 27). Switzerland leading indicator (July 27). U.K. total orders (July 27). Germany unemployment rate (July 28). EMU, U.K. consumer confidence (July 28). U.K. nationwide house prices (July 29). France consumer spending (July 29). PPI (July 29). Spain, EMU CPI (July 29). U.K. consumer credit (July 29). France, Germany, EMU PMI manufacturing (Aug. 1). EMU unemployment rate (Aug. 1). EMU PPI (Aug. 2). France, Germany, EMU PMI services (Aug. 3). EMU PMI composite (Aug. 3). Retail sales (Aug. 3).

                                                                  Japan And Other Asia-Pacific

• South Korea's central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 3.25% in its policy meeting held on July 13 because of rising uncertainty on the global economic recovery, including the eurozone debt crisis.
• New Zealand's economy rose by 0.8% quarter over quarter in the March quarter, stronger than the 0.5% quarter-over-quarter growth in the last quarter of 2010 and consensus expectations of just 0.4% quarter over quarter, owing to the February Christchurch earthquake. The increase was the fastest quarterly expansion since the December 2009 quarter.
• Singapore's economy contracted 7.8% quarter over quarter in the second quarter, after a 27.2% jump in the first quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the pace of economic growth slowed to a mere 0.4% in the second quarter. The manufacturing sector, where output contracted by 5.5% year over year after a 16.4% year-over-year jump in the previous quarter, led the deceleration.
• New Zealand consumer prices (CPI) rose 1% during the second quarter, increasing year-over-year inflation to 5.3%. The reading was much stronger than the consensus forecast of an increase of just 0.7% quarter over quarter and 5.1% year over year.
• India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose by 9.4% year over year in June 2011, up from 9.06% in May.
• Coming releases:  Retail sales (July 27). Trade balance (July 27). CPI (July 28). Unemployment rate (July 28). Personal income (July 28). PCE (July 28). Industrial production (July 28). Shipments (July 28). PMI (July 28). Housing starts (July 29). Auto sales (Aug. 1). Trade balance (Aug. 4). Leading index (Aug. 5). Current account (Aug. 7). Consumer confidence (Aug. 9).

5th of S&P 500 Reports and Housing Data, Debt Crisis wait Next Week

The European Banking Drama and Italian/ Spanish Banks, (De) stressed Test will Continue to Haunt the Market, as Last Weeks Legacy. The Hectic activity at White House and failed Summit, may drive the Monday.
The Bond Market may usurp the Yields, as a Feat Gauge. While, US Markets closed with VIX above 20%.
The Monday's Earning reports are IBM, Mosiac, Haliburton, Chales Schwab.

Tuesday,  A Banking Day :  The course will begin the with Australian Bank Rate decision. Indian market would have HDFC Bank and Crompton Greaves, Chambal fertilizer results. Soon, ZEW survey will take the Shot at German Economic Sentiment and other consumer surveys. The US markets shall open with Building Permits and Housing Starts. But, the Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Coca Cola and Novartis  all will bring the markets live. While, Apple, Blackrock, Yahoo will  post Closing Bell. While, Crude oil is expected to play the rear. The Dodd-Frank Regulation will catch the talks.

Wednesday : The China will fire its Economic Leading Indicators, to Kick start the Trade. The Chinese Banks are expected to take it slow on Rates and reserves, for a while. In India, Dr Reddy's will bring out results. The Minutes of Bank of England should a passing event. The Existing Home Sales are expected to be show More Ghost Inventories live and MBA Purchase applications being sideways. The banking agenda continues with Bank of Canada declaring Rate decision. CAD $/ USD movement will be the trade.
 The EIA Petroleum Inventories may impress the Fresh series for the Crude/ its Derivatives. FED will have its bytes. AMR, BlackRock, EMC and Abbott will spread the result card. Intel, eBay, American Express add on Bell.

Thursday :  The Japanese Merchandise data and Import/Export to Opens the Yen/$. The Indian Markets digets the results from Hero Honda, Hind.Zinc, Sesa Goa, Kotak-Mah. Bank. The Inflation figures will set the back drop for the forthcoming RBI meet. The European summit on Greece will rumble at Brussels.
The Flash PMI's of Germany, France and Major Euro area will echo the activity. The US FHFA Housing Index, Jobless claims and LEI may push the DEBT talk in Full Focus. AT&T, Morgan Stanley, Pepsico, and the Market will close the bell with Microsoft, along with Roche, AMD.

Friday :  The China PMI is trade opener. Indian market have Axis Bank, Canara and Allahabad Bank results.
The Candian CPI carries to the US Trade, Where, Caterpillar, GE, Verizon, Honeywell may reflect what is passed on the Consumers and what is absorbed.

All the impasse will not over shadow the US Debt reaching the Crisis Point