Indian Deficit is at 8.6% with 10% Inflation

India's combined fiscal deficit --of both the Centre and states--during 2011-12 could be as high as 8.6% of the GDP and any further slippage could risk a credit downgrade and loss of business confidence, says a report.

According to global research firm Macquarie, consolidated fiscal deficit of the country including off-budget items like food, oil and fertiliser is likely to be around 8.6% amid slowing revenue growth and "lack of expenditure management by the government".

Macquarie further warned the country's fiscal deficit already remained high and any further slippage can increase the risk of "credit rating downgrade and loss of business confidence". It said the Indian government needs to adhere to the path of fiscal correction.

"We believe that the government needs to stick to its commitment of fiscal consolidation and curtail expenditure growth to create a room for private investments," the report said.

The overall fiscal deficit in financial year 2010-11, excluding the 3G spectrum receipts stood at 9%, it said.

"This, in an environment of weak global capital markets, could result in higher cost of capital and further crowding out of private investments and thus slower growth," it said.

Moreover, high fiscal deficit is also the main culprit responsible for high inflation, Macquarie said.

Empirical estimates suggest that a 1 per cent increase in level of fiscal deficit could cause about a quarter of a percentage point increase in the WPI.

Inflation has remained above the RBI's comfort zone of 5-5.5% over the last 22 months and has averaged over 9% during this period.

Europe, FED and Bernanke to lean over Market

Tuesday

In the UK, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor will be published, and
signal the latest trading conditions on the high street.
China releases the latest batch of inflation data for August, including
the consumer price (CPI) and producer price indexes (PPI).
CPI registered 6.5% in July, despite numerous attempts by the government
to cool inflationary pressures.
The Eurozone sees the revised estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for Q2.
Currently, the preliminary figure puts quarter-on-quarter growth at
0.2%. Industrial orders for Germany, meanwhile, will also be released on Tuesday

The closely watched ISM non-manufacturing PMI survey is
published on Tuesday,

Wednesday

The KPMG/REC Report on Jobs is published on Wednesday,
providing insight into UK labour market conditions.
Official industrial production data for July will also be
published on Wednesday in Germany and the UK

Across the Atlantic, weekly data for mortgage applications
and store sales will reflect the current consumer attitude in
the US. Also, the Federal Reserve Beige Book that provides
anecdotal evidence alongside current economic data will be
released ahead of the FOMC conference held later in
September.
Wednesday concludes with the Bank of Canada announcing
their interest rate decision, as well as the IVEY PMI
indicating the direction of Canadian economic growth.
Canadian GDP contracted 0.1% during the second quarter.


Thursday
The main highlight of Thursday revolves around monetary
policy announcements in the Eurozone, UK and US. Notably,
Chairman Bernanke will deliver a speech at the Economic
Club in Minnesota that will provide further insight into the
future policy stance of the Fed and whether this includes
QE3.
The publication of trade balances across the Eurozone will
identify the extent of an export-led recovery in the euro area.
This is particularly the case for Germany, where exports
have been key to its economic recovery. In June, German

exports fell 1.2% compared with May, and are expected to
fall further according to a recent Reuters’ poll.
Other notable releases are international trade, initial
jobless claims and consumer credit data for the US.

Friday
The week draws to a close with both Japan and Italy
releasing latest estimates for Q2 GDP. Moreover, inflation
data in the UK and Germany will be published, while France
releases industrial production data for July. Details
surrounding the French government budget will also be
released and signal the effects of recent austerity measures

India GDP Growth slows to 7.7% Year over Year

Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the First Quarter (April-June) of 2011-12

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1, of 2011-12, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP. 2.         The estimates of Quarterly GDP have been compiled using the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP). The new series of IIP with base 2004-05 was released by CSO on 10th June, 2011.  The new series of IIP is based on a representative item basket comprising of 682 individual items and a weighting diagram which better reflects the present structure and composition of the industry due to changes in the technology, economic reforms and production behaviour over time. A comparative table showing growth rates of IIP in the new series and the old series for Q1 of 2009-10 to 2011-12 is given below.             Growth Rates of IIP in New and Old series for Q1 (In percentage) Mining Manufacturing Electricity Capital Goods Consumer Goods Old series New series Old series New series Old series New series Old series New series Old series New series 2009-10 6.8 6.2 3.6 -3.7 5.8 6.1 3.5 -16.5 -0.3 -1.6 2010-11 10.2 8.0 12.6 10.3 5.6 5.4 31.9 17.2 9.2 11.5 2011-12 1.0 7.5 8.2 16.8 4.2             Accordingly, Q1 estimates of  GDP for 2009-10 and 2010-11, which were released on 31st May 2011, have been revised on account of using the new series of IIP.  The use of new series of IIP (base 2004-05) has resulted in revisions in mining, manufacturing, electricity and trade, hotels and restaurant sectors in GDP. Estimates of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and valuables, components of expenditure side of GDP have also been revised, accordingly. 3.         The details of estimates of GDP for Q1, 2011-12 are presented below. I           ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (a)        At constant (2004-2005) prices 4.         Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-2005) prices for Q1 of 2011-12 is estimated at ` 12,26,339 crore, as against  `11,38,286 crore in Q1 of 2010-11, showing a growth rate of 7.7 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.   5.         The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q1 of 2011-12 over Q1 of 2010-11 are  ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 7.9 per cent,  ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 12.8 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 9.1 per cent.  The estimated growth rates in other economic activities are: 7.2 per cent in ‘manufacturing’, 5.6 percent in ‘community, social and personal services’, 3.9 percent in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, 1.8 percent in ‘mining & quarrying’ and 1.2 percent in ‘construction’ during this period. 6.         According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q1 of 2011-12,  the production of crops - rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses during  the  Rabi  season  of agriculture year 2010-11 (which ended in June 2011) recorded growth rates of 11.3 per cent, 6.3 per cent, 0.7 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively over the production in the corresponding season of previous agriculture year.   Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds increased by 12.0 per cent during the Rabi season of 2010-11. 7.         According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the new series, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 1.0 per cent, 7.5 per cent and 8.2 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2011-12, as compared to the growth rates of  8.0 per cent, 10.3 per cent and 5.4 per cent in these sectors during Q1 of 2010-11. The estimates of Q1 for 2009-10 and 2010-11 have been revised on account of using new series of IIP. 8.         The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement declined by 0.9% and consumption of finished steel registered growth rate of 1.5 per cent, during Q1 of 2011-12. 9.         Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rates of 6.3 per cent and 6.1 per cent,  respectively during Q1 of 2011-12.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sales of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation, passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 14.1 per cent, 5.2 per cent, 4.9 per cent and 14.6 per cent respectively during Q1 of 2011-12 over Q1 of 2010-11.  The total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth of 34 per cent as against 41 percent in the first quarter of the previous year.  The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 18.7 per cent, and 21.0 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2011-12 over Q1 of 2010-11. (b)       At current prices 10.       GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q1 of 2011-12, is estimated at ` 19,37,123 crore, as against ` 16,59,708 crore in Q1, 2010-11, showing an increase of 16.7 per cent.  11.       The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 9.1 per cent, 20.9 per cent, 7.2 per cent, 0.3 per cent and 9.4 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2011-12, over Q1 of 2010-11. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 8.9 per cent during Q1 of 2011-12 over Q1 of 2010-11. II         ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP 12.       The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices. Private Final Consumption Expenditure 13.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ` 11,97,461 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against `10,29,527 crore in Q1 of 2010-11.  At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ` 7,95,683 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against `7,48,395 crore in Q1 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-2005) prices during Q1 of 2011-12 are estimated at 58.1 per cent and 60.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.7 per cent and 61.7 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2010-11. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 14.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at ` 2,17,483 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against `1,95,413 crore in Q1 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the GFCE is estimated at ` 1,36,935 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against `1,34,161 crore in Q1 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-2005) prices during Q1 of 2011-12 are estimated at 10.5 per cent and 10.4 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 11.1 per cent each in Q1 of 2010-11. Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at ` 5,85,261 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against ` 5,12,457 crore in Q1 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the GFCF is estimated at ` 4,10,533 crore in Q1 of 2011-12 as against ` 3,80,544 crore in Q1 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-2005) prices during Q1 of 2011-12 are estimated at 28.4 per cent and 31.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.2 per cent and 31.4 per cent, respectively in Q1 of 2010-11. 16.       Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q1 of 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 at constant (2004-2005) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 4.

RBI releases Annual Report for 2010-11

from PRESS RELEASES FROM RBI

The Reserve Bank of India today released its Annual Report for 2010-11. This is a statutory Report of the Central Board of the Reserve Bank that covers (i) the assessment of the macroeconomic performance during 2010-11 and the prospects for 2011-12, and (ii) the working and operations of the Reserve Bank and its financial accounts. The highlights of the Report are as follows: Assessment for 2010-11 The Indian economy returned to a high growth path. However, challenges emerged as investment activity slowed, fiscal consolidation was led by cyclical and one-off factors, leaving its sustainability in question and inflation remained sticky on the back of new pressures. In response, cumulative monetary tightening by raising operational policy rates by 475 bps since mid-March 2010 has been one of the sharpest around the world. The policy was tightened aggressively as high inflation would have brought down growth by itself. Trade off for higher inflation for lower unemployment or higher growth does not work if inflation is high. The threshold inflation at which this change occurs has been empirically estimated in 4-6 per cent range for India. The inflation objective of monetary policy is lower than the threshold keeping in view the welfare costs for the poor and the open nature of the economy. As such, the Reserve Bank’s medium-term inflation objective has been 3 per cent. Reserve Bank’s emphasis on containing perceptions of inflation in the range of 4.0-4.5 per cent Fiscal deficit ratios in 2010-11 turned out to be better than envisaged in the Union budget. A qualitative assessment of fiscal correction during 2010-11, however, raises concerns. Capital outlay-GDP ratio fell. Improved fiscal position had a large temporary component. Clearly, a more enduring fiscal consolidation strategy is needed. The improvement in the current account gap came about by cyclical upswing in global trade and turnaround in invisibles. This was on back of a strong pick-up in exports from November 2010 aided by diversification of trade in composition and direction. Trade policy supported exports through schemes such as DEPB. Financial markets across the world witnessed significant deleveraging in the post-crisis period. However, balance sheet risks still remain. In India, post-Lehman crisis, regulators have taken several measures for risk mitigation, but areas of concerns remain. A series of stress tests conducted by the Reserve Bank showed that banks remained reasonably resilient. However, risks of asset quality deterioration in infrastructure sector needs to be averted by quickly resolving the pricing and input supply issues. The gross NPA ratio of scheduled commercial banks which increased marginally to 2.52 per cent by end-June 2011 still remains low. Based on unaudited results of these banks, the CRAR at 13.86 per cent as at end-June 2011 was well above the minimum requirement. Prospects for 2011-12 Going ahead, global uncertainty, sticky inflation, hardening interest rates and high base, especially for agriculture, could moderate growth in 2011-12. On the other hand, though global commodity prices appear to have plateaued, inflation is likely to be elevated in near term and fall only towards the later part of the year as monetary transmission works through further. Growth Outlook for 2011-12 After above trend growth during 2010-11, growth is expected to decelerate but remain close to the trend of about 8.0 per cent in 2011-12. If global financial problems amplify and slow down global growth markedly, it would impart a downward bias to the growth projection of around 8.0 per cent indicated in the Monetary Policy. Growth prospects for the year 2011-12 seem to be relatively subdued compared with the previous year. Global uncertainties, high global oil and commodity prices, persistent inflationary pressures, rising input costs, rise in cost of capital due to monetary tightening and slow project execution are some of the factors that are weighing on growth. Crop prospects remain good, though on a high base the growth is likely to turn out to be less than last year. The monsoon up to August 17, 2011 was 1 per cent below the Long Period Average. RBI’s overall foodgrains production weighted rainfall index was 101 till August 17, 2011 (88 in the corresponding period last year). Sowing up to August 12, 2011 was marginally higher than in corresponding period of the previous year. Downside risks to the industrial growth in 2011-12 may arise from falling business confidence, but robustness of the services sector would continue to support the growth process. There is a very strong structural dimension to services sector growth in India. Investment may remain soft in the near term, while private consumption may decelerate. In face of moderating demand, expenditure-switching from government consumption expenditures to public investments would help. Inflation Outlook for 2011-12 Inflation is likely to remain high and moderate only towards the latter part of the year to about 7 per cent by March 2012. The decline in global commodity prices has not been very significant. Should the global recovery weaken ahead, commodity prices may decline further, which should have a salutary impact on domestic inflation. The Fed has indicated that it will pursue its near zero rate policy at least till mid-2013. It has also hinted at another dose of quantitative easing. This policy stance may keep the commodity prices elevated. The pass-through of the rise in global commodity prices till had been incomplete, especially in the minerals and oil space. As such, the benefit of a moderate fall in global commodity prices on domestic price level would also be limited. If global oil prices stay at current level, further increase in prices of administered oil products will become necessary to contain subsidies. Fertiliser and electricity prices will also require an upward revision in view of sharp rise in input costs. The high and persistent inflation over the last two years has brought to the fore the limitation in arresting inflation in absence of adequate supply response. However, monetary policy still has an important role to play in curbing the second round effects of supply-led inflation. In face of nominal rigidities and price stickiness, there are dangers of accepting elevated inflation level as the new normal. Outlook on twin deficits for 2011-12 In the context of weakening global economy and the likelihood of some spillovers to the domestic economy, the twin deficits require close monitoring. On current assessment, the fiscal deficit in 2011-12 is likely to overshoot the budgeted projections. If the economy slows down beyond what is currently anticipated, the resultant revenue erosion could magnify the fiscal slippage. At the same time, the fiscal space to support any counter-cyclical policies is more limited than what existed at the time of the global crisis of 2008. On the other hand, in the baseline scenario, the CAD would remain at a sustainable level in 2011-12. Estimates of sustainable CAD suggest a threshold of 2.7-3.0 per cent of GDP. Prospects for external sector for 2011-12 remain somewhat uncertain as global uncertainties could impinge on commodity prices and exchange rate movements. The continuance of robust performance of exports in 2010-11 and 2011-12 so far faces downside risks. The impact of growth slowdown in the advanced economies could partly be mitigated by continued diversification of exports. The impact could, nevertheless, turn material in case the slowdown in global growth is sharp and widespread. With the US and Europe constituting the bulk of Indian software exports, some impact from a slowdown in advanced economies can be expected. Several pointers suggest that a growth could still be in line with NASSCOM target. Any downside impact can become perceptible with a lag if crisis assumes severe proportions. As regards capital flows, the impact is more difficult to gauge. Capital flows could surge or diminish, depending upon the degree of risk aversion. If global crisis turns deep, capital flows are more likely to moderate. On the other hand, capital flows to India could increase in spells on relative returns basis and due to large interest differentials. FDI to India in Q1 of 2011-12 has doubled. Medium-term Challenges for the Indian Economy

CMIE : Revises India's growth Projections

Growth projections for 2011-12 scaled down to 8.1%

We have revised our real GDP growth forecast for 2011-12 downwards - from 8.6 per cent to 8.1 per cent.

The forecasts for all major sectors have been scaled down. The agricultural sector is expected to grow by 2.2 per cent (compared to our earlier estimate of 3.2 per cent), the industrial sector by 8.6 per cent (compared to 8.9 per cent) and the services sector by 9.4 per cent (compared to 9.9 per cent).

Agricultural growth rates for 2011-12 have been scaled down mainly because the fourth advance estimates for production of major crops, recently released by the Ministry of Agriculture, indicate some exceptionally high growth rates in 2010-11. These high growth rates limit the growth potential in 2011-12. Besides, the output of groundnut and cotton are expected to decline in 2011-12, because of poor rains in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Production of the other crops is unlikely to grow sharply enough to offset these falls, because the base production values have been scaled up substantially by the fourth advance estimates.

Growth projections for the industrial sector have been scaled down essentially because of the slow pace in commissioning of projects. CMIE's CapEx database reveals that projects valued at an impressive Rs.8.3 lakh crore are scheduled to be commissioned in 2011-12. However, a mere 305 projects entailing an investment of Rs.63,274 crore were commissioned in the first quarter of the fiscal, while many projects have been delayed. We expect this slow creation of new capacities to hurt growth in power generation, steel and petroleum refining in 2011-12. The edible oil industry is expected to suffer because of an expected fall in the production of groundnuts.

A lower growth in production of agriculture and industry is expected to adversely impact the growth in the services sector.

Several senior government sources have admitted that the 9 per cent growth assumed in the Union Budget is unlikely to be achieved. The finance minister stated on 10 August that the economy is likely to grow by around 8 per cent. This was the lowest forecast from the government. And, it came after the forecast of 8.2 per cent made by the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council. The Reserve Bank of India too scaled down its forecast to 8 per cent in May 2011, while several private agencies - mostly from the financial broking arms of multinational investment companies - have scaled down their forecasts to less than 8 per cent.

Krishna Warrier

Indian Growth prospects lowered to 8.2%

Prime Minister's Office01-August, 2011 12:01 IST

Highlights of Economic Outlook 2011-12

The Chairman Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, Dr. C. Rangarajan released the ‘Economic Outlook 2011-12’ in New Delhi today. Following are the highlights: Economy to grow at 8.2% in 2011-12 Agriculture grew at 6.6% in 2010-11. Projected to grow at 3.0% in 2011-12 Industry grew at 7.9% in 2010-11. Projected to grow at 7.1% in 2011-12 Services grew at 9.4% in 2009-10. Projected to grow at 10.0% in 2011-12 The projected growth rate of 8.2%, though lower than the previous year, must be treated as high and respectable, given the current world situation. Global economic and financial situation unlikely to improve To keep the economy growing at 9% it is important to increase fixed investment rate Investment rate projected at 36.4% in 2010-11 and 36.7% in 2011-12 Domestic savings rate as ratio of GDP projected at 33.8% in 2010-11 & 34.0% in 2011-12  The 2011 monsoon projected to be in the range of 90 to 96 per cent of Long Period Average. As a result farm sector output expected to grow at 3 % The revised series (2004/05) for Index of Industrial Production shows an output growth pattern that is fairly different from what the old series (1993/94) had indicated. The output growth was grossly underestimated by the old series in 2007-08 and overestimated in 2008-09 and 2009-10. The impact of the global crisis on industrial output was much stronger than had been indicated by the old series In 2010-11 the output growth was higher at 8.2% against 7.8% indicated by the old series Current Account deficit is $44.3 billion (2.6% of GDP) in 2010-11 and projected at $54.0 billion (2.7% of GDP) in 2011-12 Merchandise trade deficit is $ 130.5 billion or 7.59% of the GDP in 2010-11 and projected at $154.0 billion or 7.7% of GDP in 2011-12 Invisibles trade surplus is $ 86.2 billion or 5.0% of the GDP in 2010-11 and projected at $100.0 billion or 5.0% in 2011-12 Capital flows at $61.9 billion in 2010-11 and projected at $72.0 billion in 2011-12 FDI inflows projected at $35 billion in 2011/12 against the level of $23.4 billion in 2010-11 FII inflows projected to be $14 billion which is less than half that of the last year i.e $30.3 billion Accretion to reserves was $15.2 billion in 2010-11. Projected at $18.0 billion in 2011-12 Inflation rate projected at 6.5 % in March 2012. The headline inflation rate would continue to be at 9 per cent in the month of July-October 2011. There will be some relief starting from November and will decline to 6.5% in March 2012. Available food stocks to be liberally released Important role for fiscal policy to contain demand pressure. Need to ensure that fiscal deficit does not exceed the budgeted level RBI will have to continue to follow a tight monetary policy till inflation shows definite signs of decline Achieving fiscal targets set in 2011/12 budget estimates to present a significant challenge For 2011/12, budget estimates of fiscal deficit for Centre - 4.7%; States- 2.1% and consolidated fiscal deficit including off budget liabilities - 6.8% Government to redouble efforts to collect larger revenue, resolve cases to reduce tax arrears Minimize avoidable expenditures and initiate measures to increase revenues Resolve issues with states and introduce Goods and Services Tax Reforms in power sector distribution system to limit the liabilities of state governments Some key issues of concern: Convergence of growth rates of states An analysis of the recent data indicates that while most of the lower income states have shown stronger growth rates, several of the higher income states have also shown an increase Current Account Deficit Given our growth needs, a moderate trade deficit and CAD are inevitable. To finance the CAD, foreign investment flows need to be promoted. However CAD to be contained below 2.5% of the GDP Power Sector The India growth story inextricably linked to the power sector Immediate policy interventions required for ensuring coal availability for the power plants, land acquisition and environmental clearances and revision of power tariff by states to reduce high AT&C losses Increased focus on non conventional energy Food Security Need to grant the poor a legal entitlement to food through an appropriate legislative enactment Availability of grain to be kept in mind while deciding legal entitlements Reforms in PDS important to strengthen distribution. Computerization, introduction of smart cards and using unique identification numbers for the beneficiaries are important interventions Table 1: GDP Growth - Actual & Projected At constant 2004/05 prices Year-on-year rates of growth in per cent ANNUAL RATES 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 QE Rev Proj. 1 Agriculture & allied activities 5.1 4.2 5.8 -0.1 0.4 6.6 3.0 2 Mining & Quarrying 1.3 7.5 3.7 1.3 6.9 5.8 6.0 3 Manufacturing 10.1 14.3 10.3 4.2 8.8 8.3 7.0 4 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 7.1 9.3 8.3 4.9 6.4 5.7 7.0 5 Construction 12.8 10.3 10.7 5.4 7.0 8.1 7.5 6 Trade, Hotels, Transport, Storage & Communication 12.2 11.6 11.0 7.5 9.7 10.3 10.8 7 Finance, insurance, real estate & business services 12.7 14.0 11.9 12.5 9.2 9.9 9.8 8 Community & personal services 7.0 2.9 6.9 12.7 11.8 7.0 8.5 9 Gross Domestic Product (factor cost) 9.5 9.6 9.3 6.8 8.0 8.5 8.2 10 Industry (2 + 3 + 4 + 5) 9.7 12.2 9.7 4.4 8.0 7.9 7.1 11 Services (6 + 7 + 8) 11.0 10.1 10.3 10.1 10.1 9.4 10.0 12 Non-agriculture (9 - 1) 10.5 10.8 10.1 8.2 9.4 8.9 9.0 14 GDP (factor cost) per capita 7.8 7.8 7.6 5.0 6.2 6.8 6.4 Some Magnitudes 15 GDP at factor cost - 2004/05 prices in Rslakh crore (or Trillion) 32.5 35.7 39.0 41.6 44.9 48.8 52.8 16 GDP market & current prices in Rs lakhcrore (or Trillion) 36.9 42.9 49.9 55.8 65.5 78.8 89.8 17 GDP market & current prices in US$ Billion 834 949 1,241 1,223 1,385 1,732 1,994 18 Population in Million 1,108 1,126 1,145 1,164 1,183 1,202 1,222 19 GDP market prices per capita current prices 33,317 38,117 43,554 47,975 55,384 65,517 73,460 20 GDP market prices per capita in current US$ 753 842 1,084 1,051 1,171 1,441 1,632